Carlisle Companies (CSL)

NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$345.04-2.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Carlisle Companies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.98 → 23.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.21B
EPS	—	4.504
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.26B
EPS	—	20.824
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.52B
EPS	—	23.763

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by about 50 basis points in 2026	Carlisle Companies grows sales about 4% yearly and improves profit margins by 0.5 points.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA margin fails to expand by at least 30 basis points in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.2% in 2026-Q2, down 70 basis points year-over-year, reflecting cost inflation pressures. Management now guides to flat adjusted EBITDA margin for full-year 2026, a moderation from prior 50 basis points expansion guidance, indicating limited progress on margin expansion this year. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete $1 billion share repurchase in 2026	The company returns capital steadily, repurchasing $1 billion in shares in 2026.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $750 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue growth near 4% annually	A primary condition in Carlisle Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year	Revenue growth: 8.33% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20268.333908 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1173bc15-fc00-4f57-9ce6-244f5ccc12dc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.76

$23.29 → $23.76 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.52B

$5.38B → $5.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$23.29	$5,381,560,220	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$23.29	$5,381,560,220	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$23.27	$5,389,731,092	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$23.29	$5,381,560,220	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$23.29	$5,381,560,220	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$23.27	$5,389,731,092	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$23.60	$5,468,428,003	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$23.92	$5,509,606,860	8 / 9
2026-08-03	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$23.92	$5,509,606,860	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$24.08	$5,527,051,300	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$24.08	$5,527,051,300	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-11	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$23.84	$5,494,455,275	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$24.06	$5,527,000,892	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$24.06	$5,527,000,892	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$24.05	$5,531,457,168	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$24.05	$5,531,457,168	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$24.05	$5,531,457,168	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$24.06	$5,534,138,721	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$24.06	$5,534,111,451	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$23.98	$5,529,250,598	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$23.91	$5,524,850,598	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$23.91	$5,524,850,598	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$23.91	$5,524,850,598	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$23.91	$5,521,850,598	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$23.91	$5,521,850,598	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$23.97	$5,509,851,998	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$24.00	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$24.00	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$24.00	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$24.00	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$23.88	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$23.88	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$23.88	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$23.88	$5,518,241,998	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$23.88	$5,517,641,998	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$23.76	$5,519,038,180	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$23.76	$5,519,038,180	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	5
2026-06-01	5	4
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	5	5
2026-09-01	5	5
2026-10-01	5	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

D.A. DavidsonOct 9 · prior Aug 24

$410.00 → $355.00-13.4%

$0$225.50$451.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by about 50 basis points in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Complete $1 billion share repurchase in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain revenue growth near 4% annuallyRevenue growth: 8.33%

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Carlisle Companies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a quality industrial business with a cyclical sector backdrop, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into Carlisle Companies

The evidence describes CSL as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s outlook. The valuation is marked justified, and fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth is on track: second-quarter revenue grew 8% year over year, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to mid-single-digit growth. Margin progress is weaker, with the second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin down 70 basis points year over year and full-year guidance now flat; the near-term miss risk is rated low, but recent industry misses remain a watch point.

What Carlisle Companies hinges on

Over the next year, a key swing factor is whether management sustains its raised guidance; reversing it with a cut would also damage credibility. Sector conditions matter too: continued strength from industrial bellwethers would support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.