Carlisle Companies (CSL)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$337.53-1.16%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Carlisle Companies grows sales about 4% yearly and improves profit margins by 0.5 points. The company returns capital steadily, repurchasing $1 billion in shares in 2026. Operational improvements and new products support margin gains and steady growth.
Sales growth could slow below 4%, and margin expansion may stall. Capital returns might weaken if cash flow tightens. Rising costs or weaker demand could pressure profits.
The price is about 2% below our fair value near $362. Analysts expect roughly 5% revenue growth, slightly above recent growth. Our fair value is about 15% below the Street median, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA margin fails to expand by at least 30 basis points in 2026
Enhance productivity and cost control through COS initiatives, automation, and manufacturing footprint consolidation.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CSL represents a durable compounder with a focus on achieving mid-single-digit revenue growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, despite some challenges in margin expansion.
The market currently prices CSL as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for growth, given the company's recent performance.
Management is on track to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2026, which is a positive sign. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin is behind expectations due to cost inflation pressures, indicating some challenges ahead.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and OC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support CSL's growth, but any signs of weakness could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the outlook for revenue growth. Strong sales also reinforce the goal of achieving low-single-digit revenue growth in 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. COS initiatives contributed to productivity gains and cost controls, partially offsetting raw material inflation. Adjusted EBITDA margins showed mixed results but operational improvements remain a recurring focus, indicating ongoing but limited margin impact so far.
“COS productivity gains and cost controls offset some inflationary pressures.”
“COS-led productivity gains, procurement discipline, and cost controls improved margins.”
“Enhanced emphasis on COS and expanded automation to drive operational excellence.”
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $750 million in 2026
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year
CSL is navigating a complex environment with stable management and a focus on growth, but faces challenges in margin expansion. Not investment advice.