Mammoth Energy Services, Inc. (TUSK)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$3.17-0.94%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Mammoth Energy is growing revenue fast, from $1.45M to $22.03M in one quarter. The company aims to be Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026. Recent earnings beats show improving operations. Profitability is still fragile but progress is clear.
Revenue is expected to decline about 15% next year. Free cash flow is negative and profit margins remain weak. The company faces volatile management and sector headwinds. The recent 20% share price drop signals risk.
The market prices in about -15% revenue decline and a 36% discount to fair value. Our view is cautious given fragile profitability and volatile management, so the discount seems justified.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative for full year 2026
Reach full-year Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026 through operational improvements and margin expansion.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating a high-risk environment with mixed signals from management and recent performance.
The market currently reflects an expensive valuation compared to peers, indicating high expectations. There is an expectations gap that suggests the market anticipates significant improvements in performance that may not yet be justified.
Fundamentals are showing mixed results. While revenue growth is strong, the company remains loss-making, and recent financial performance is below industry peers. Management's focus on achieving positive Adjusted EBITDA is a key point to monitor.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and TUSK's ability to meet its financial targets. Any changes in guidance or performance from major industry players could significantly impact TUSK's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. Recent financial performance remains below its industry peers. The market backdrop shows a deterioration in sector regimes, which is a drag on TUSK.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $1.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $2.6 million in 2026-Q2, with management raising the full-year 2026 outlook twice and expecting Adjusted EBITDA margin to exceed 10%. The trajectory is delivering with sequential improvement in profitability.
“We are increasing our full-year 2026 outlook for the second time this year... Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to exceed 10%”
“We are raising our 2026 outlook, including now expecting to reach full-year Adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026.”
Breaks if: Further major management changes or regulatory issues occur
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -15% in FY26
Drive revenue growth across operating businesses including aviation platform and strategic acquisitions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $22.0 million in 2026-Q1 to $26.1 million in 2026-Q2, representing a 110% year-over-year increase. Management raised the full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to exceed 90%. The trajectory is delivering with strong sequential and year-over-year revenue growth.
“Revenue increased 110% year over year to $26.1 million; increasing full-year 2026 outlook for the second time this year.”
“Total revenue from continuing operations was $22.0 million for the first quarter of 2026 compared to $11.6 million for the first quarter of 2025.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, TUSK's outlook remains uncertain due to high valuation and mixed execution. Not investment advice.