Reading SWX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWX free→Reading SWX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWX free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 28% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is due to weak recent financials and fragile earnings quality, which can indicate a value-trap pattern. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 SWX trades at 13× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $98–$105. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.34x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.52 (+12.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$179.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,016.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a shift in the perception of potential volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment. The valuation is described as cheap, but there is a noted risk of being a value trap due to fragile earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The results will show the company's financial health. They will also show operational performance.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show strong growth in net income. Margins improved compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings reveal a decline in net income or margins compared to Q1 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SWX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. released summary financial information to the general public, including the investment community, regarding operating performance for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the associated press release and summary financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$98.00 – $105.00 (median $100.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NJR New Jersey Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend per share of $0.62.
Focus on improving cash flow from operating activities.
Aim to grow net income over the quarters.
Why it matters: A strong increase in net income would show the company is improving its operations. This aligns with management's goal to increase net income.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 exceeds $152.2M, which is a 10% increase from Q1.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 is less than or equal to $138.4M.
Why it matters: Approval will allow for a $71 million revenue increase and support future earnings growth.
Confirms:The Nevada Public Utilities Commission approves the rate case. New rates will start in October 2026.
Disproves:Nevada rate case is denied or delayed, preventing the planned revenue increase.
Why it matters: Getting these agreements will show demand. It will help the planned 2028 expansion project.
Confirms:Agreements are signed for the Great Basin expansion. This confirms demand for 1.0 Bcf per day.
Disproves:No agreements are signed. This shows lower demand than expected for the expansion.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep the dividend and supports financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities goes up each quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down each quarter.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows that management cares about shareholders.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend will remain at $0.62 per share.
Disproves:The company announces a cut to the dividend per share.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Southwest Gas. It shows the sector is improving.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Karen S. Haller as President, Chief Executive Officer and Director On February 19, 2026, Karen S. Haller, President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Chief Executive Officer and Director of Southwest Gas Corporation (“Southwest Gas” and, together with the Company, the “Companies…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026 , Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. released summary financial information to the general public, including the investment community, regarding operating performance for the quarter and twelve months ended December 31, 2025 . A copy of the associated press release and summary financial information is attached hereto as Exhibit 99. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 6, 2026, Anne L. Mariucci notified Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) that she will not stand for re-election to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) and that she will retire from the Board at the conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting. The Company…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and Carl C. Icahn and the persons and entities listed in the Cooperation Agreement (as defined below) (collectively, the “Icahn Group” and together with the Company, the “Parties”) mutually agreed to terminate that certain Amended and Restated Cooperation Agreement, dated as of October 14, 2025, by and between the Parties (the “Cooperation Agreement”). As a result of such termina…