Reading NFG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NFG free→Reading NFG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NFG free→NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, though the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop presents a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 46% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 NFG trades at 10× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $143 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 46% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.42. 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$182.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,045.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would show strong cash flow and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Confirms:Management will announce an increase in the dividend per share.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend despite strong earnings or cash flow.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NFG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. CenterPoint Acquisition As previously disclosed, on October 20, 2025, National Fuel Gas Company (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with CenterPoint Energy Resources Corp. (the “Seller”), pursuant to which, among other things, the Company agreed to acquire from the Seller all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of Vectren Energy Delivery of Ohio, LLC (“CenterPoint Ohio”), the Seller’s Ohio natural gas local distribut…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NJR New Jersey Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the acquisition of CenterPoint Energy's Ohio natural gas utility business by Q4 2026.
Maintain the long-term growth of dividends, which have been increased each of the past 55 years.
Focus on improving operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: This deal will grow National Fuel's regulated assets. It will also increase cash flow.
Confirms:The deal will close in Q4 2026 if there are no regulatory delays.
Disproves:The deal is delayed or stopped by regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would help National Fuel grow and reach more customers.
Confirms:An official announcement will confirm the acquisition is complete. It will also show that approvals are in place.
Disproves:A delay or cancellation may occur. This could be due to regulatory problems or other issues.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its earnings for the quarter and six months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as part of this Current Report as Exhibit 99. Neither the furnishing of the press release as an exhibit to this Current Report nor the inclusion in such press release of any reference to the Company’s internet address shall, under any circumstances,…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company (the “Company”) updated its Investor Presentation. A copy of the presentation is furnished as part of this Current Report as Exhibit 99. Neither the furnishing of the presentation as an exhibit to this Current Report nor the inclusion in such presentation of any reference to the Company’s internet address shall, under any circumstances, be deemed to incorporate the information available at such internet address into this C…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On March 27, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company (the “ Company ”) entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”), with PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, and the following lenders: PNC Bank, National Association; Bank of America, N.A.; JPMorgan Chase Bank, N. A.; The Toronto-Dominion Bank, New York Branch; Wells Fargo Bank, National Association; Canadian Imper…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information described in