National Fuel Gas (NFG)
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-09
$82.45-1.62%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
National Fuel Gas is growing revenue about 17% year over year. The company raised EPS guidance to $7.6 per share for Q3 2026. Operating income improved from $276 million to $347 million in Q2. The recent acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio supports future growth.
The company missed Q2 earnings by 4.2%. Recent selloff and litigation risks pressure the stock. Operating income growth may slow due to regional limits and cost pressures.
The stock trades about 26% below our fair value near $108. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth next year. Our view is slightly more cautious given recent earnings misses and market stress.
Breaks if: Acquisition not completed by Q4 2026
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $7.45 per share for Q3 2026
Operating income falls below $347 million in Q2 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite sector headwinds.
The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with the market pricing in some fragility due to sector turbulence. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that the market may not fully reflect NFG's potential growth.
Fundamentals are likely to continue showing robust earnings quality, with management on track to achieve its adjusted EPS growth targets. However, there is moderate risk due to the sector backdrop and recent litigation.
The thesis hinges on the successful completion of the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition and the broader Utilities sector performance. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could significantly impact NFG's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. KeyBanc reiterated its Overweight rating and $95.00 estimate, citing growth in the pipeline and storage segment. National Fuel Gas is set to close its CNP Ohio acquisition, expanding its utility footprint.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 12% next year
Overall, NFG appears well-positioned for the next few years, but it faces sector challenges and management volatility. Not investment advice.