NYSE·Utilities·Oil & Gas Integrated·Snapshot 2026-10-23
$80.53-0.49%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026
What could strengthen or challenge National Fuel Gas’s outlook?
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Higher potential upsideImproving expectations
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Comparable estimates unavailable
+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
How this is measured
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
Measure / period
Management expectations
Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue
—
826.66M
EPS
—
2.125
FY 2026 · Annual
EPS
$7.4–$7.6non-GAAP
—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue
—
3.03B
EPS
—
7.45
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue
—
2.96B
EPS
—
7.635
What the Thesis Depends On
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
Key Factor
Why It Matters
Current Status
Break Condition
Latest Evidence
Complete CenterPoint Ohio acquisition by Q4 2026
The recent acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio supports future growth.
Intact
Acquisition not completed by Q4 2026
Acquisition completed 2026-10-01 vs Q4 2026 target
NFG completed the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition on October 1, 2026, with a $1.42B cash and $1.20B note payment.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio is on track to close October 1, 2026, following completion of financing and final regulatory approval. This milestone is delivering as planned and is expected to expand the regulated business rate base and earnings growth.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS near $7.6 per share in Q3 2026
The company raised EPS guidance to $7.6 per share for Q3 2026.
Intact
EPS guidance falls below $7.45 per share for Q3 2026
Diluted EPS: $1.45 per share
FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.6 per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3.
Source published Jul 30, 20261.45 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement source
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management context
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio is on track to close October 1, 2026, following completion of financing and final regulatory approval. This milestone is delivering as planned and is expected to expand the regulated business rate base and earnings growth.
Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
Incoming Evidence
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
Expectations trend
Same fiscal period
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.
FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.
Exact estimates & source dates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot
EPS
Revenue
EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-02
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-03
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-04
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-05
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-06
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-07
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-08
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-09
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-10
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-11
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-12
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-13
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-14
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-15
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-16
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-17
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-18
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-19
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-20
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-21
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-22
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-23
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
2026-10-24
Unavailable
Unavailable
1 / 2
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
How this is measured
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Outlook in Brief
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
What's improving
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Still unresolved / key risks
Achieve EPS near $7.6 per share in Q3 2026Diluted EPS: $1.45 per share
Increase operating income to at least $347 millionOperating income: $208.94M
Sustain revenue growth near 12% YoYRevenue growth: 1.07%
Next proof point
Nov 4, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Risk observations as of Oct 23, 2026 · 277 daily observations. Historical moves are not forecasts.
Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks
National Fuel Gas outlook in detail
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
What kind of bet this is
NFG is a regulated-utility growth story with a durable earnings base, but management execution has been volatile. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and recent price reaction has been muted.
What's priced into National Fuel Gas
NFG is assessed as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in status is described as justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so the evidence does not point to unusually high expectations already being built into the setup.
What the fundamentals likely do
Recent financial performance is strong, and the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition was completed on October 1, supporting the plan to expand the regulated business and earnings base. Management targets 7% to 10% average annual adjusted EPS growth through 2029, but financing remains a mixed area and the Utilities sector backdrop is a headwind. Near term, estimated miss risk is low, though a guidance reversal after a recent raise would hurt credibility.
What National Fuel Gas hinges on
The multi-year view depends on management delivering the growth plan and integrating the completed acquisition while keeping financing disciplined. A reversal of recently raised guidance is the main unfavorable scenario; Fed rate cuts or stronger earnings and guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Bottom line
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NFG’s strong recent performance and acquisition-led growth plan support an intact thesis, but management credibility and sector conditions remain important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Source: QuarterlyIQ weekly Outlook · Week ending Oct 24, 2026 · Updated
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
