Reading OPAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPAL free→Reading OPAL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPAL free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, OPAL trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If OPAL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.91 OPAL trades at 10× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $3.20 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 40% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.01 (-83.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$752.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,177.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the utility sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit OPAL. This could improve its market position and investor outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows a positive trend.
Disproves:Sector growth is flat or going down. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OPAL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
or the exhibit attached hereto. This Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are based on current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Further, the forward-looking statements are subject to the limitations listed in Exhibit 99.1 and in the other SEC reports of the Company, including that actual events or results may differ materially from tho…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OPAL OPAL Fuels, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to meet the full year revenue guidance for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Revenue decreased from $99.76M in 2025-Q4 to $73.38M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards meeting the full year guidance. Management's statement of being on track contrasts with the declining revenue trajectory.
“we remain on track to meet our full year guidance”
“we expect full year results to be within our 2025 guidance range”
Management projects 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $95 million and $110 million.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The financials do not provide specific EBITDA figures for 2026-Q1, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $95M-$110M target. The absence of EBITDA data limits visibility into management's delivery on this priority.
“2026 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to range between $95 million and $110 million.”
Management is making adjustments to capital allocation, including modifications to security holder rights.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company made a material modification to rights of security holders, indicating a focus on capital allocation adjustments. However, the financials do not provide specific impacts of these adjustments on the company's financial position.
“OPAL Fuels LLC approved an Amended and Restated Certificate of Designations.”
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. On May 18, 2026, OPAL Fuels LLC (the “ Company ”), a Delaware limited liability company and subsidiary of OPAL Fuels Inc., approved and adopted an Amended and Restated Certificate of Designations of Series A-1 Preferred Units (the " A&R COD "), which amends and restates in its entirety that certain Certificate of Designations of Series A-1 Preferred Units of the Company, dated November 29, 2021 (the " Prior COD "). The A&R COD conforms the…
or the exhibit attached hereto. This Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward looking statements are based on current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. Further, the forward-looking statements are subject to the limitations listed in Exhibit 99.1 and in the other SEC reports of the Company, including that actual events or results may differ materially from tho…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this
OPAL Fuels Intermediate HoldCo LLC (the “ Borrower ”), a subsidiary of the Company, prior to the expiration of the delayed draw availability, recently drew down approximately $128.4 million under that certain Credit and Guarantee Agreement, dated September 1, 2023 (as amended by Amendment No. 1 to Credit and Guarantee Agreement, dated March 3, 2025, and as further amended, restated, amended and restated, supplemented or otherwise modified from time to time, the “ Credit Agreement ”), by and a…