Reading NWN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWN free→Reading NWN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NWN free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with the company trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 NWN trades at 17× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $50–$58. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 13% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.06 (+11.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$185.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,427.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can indicate growth strategies and financial health. Positive news may boost stock value.
Confirms:Announcement of new M&A deals or partnerships that enhance growth prospects.
Disproves:No new M&A announcements or bad news about the recent agreements.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NWN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 4, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Company (“NW Holdings”) (i) issued and sold $50,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 5.35% Senior Notes, Series E, due June 4, 2031 (the “Series E Notes”), (ii) agreed to issue and sell $10,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 5.35% Senior Notes, Series F, due August 5, 2031 (the “Series F Notes”) and (iii) agreed to issue and sell $60,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 5.83% Senio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $58.00 (median $58.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NWN NW Natural | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management continues to reaffirm the 2026 EPS guidance range of $2.95 to $3.15.
Management plans a revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Utilities are in a maturing phase. If revenue growth speeds up, it could boost NW Natural's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 5% for the next quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can signal economic weakness. This could impact NW Natural's customer base and revenue.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 in the reports.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 in the reports.
Why it matters: How a company uses its money can change its ability to grow. This can affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:A plan for using money was shared to help growth projects.
Confirms the other:A capital allocation plan was announced that limits growth or raises debt.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target signals growth and operational success. It can influence stock performance.
Confirms:Reported revenue increase of at least $20.1 million in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue increase reported is less than $20.1 million in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows confidence in performance. It also shows growth potential.
Confirms:Management reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95 to $3.15 during the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers the EPS guidance to below $2.95.
Why it matters: The outcome will impact revenue and growth from the Texas market.
Confirms:The Texas Railroad Commission approves SiEnergy's rate case by Q4 2026.
Disproves:If the rate case is denied or changed, it will affect revenue expectations.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, NW Natural Water Company, LLC (“NW Natural Water”), an Oregon limited liability company and a subsidiary of NW Holdings, issued and sold (i) $33,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 5.15% Senior Notes, Series A, due June 4, 2031 (the “Series A Notes”) and (ii) $42,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of its 5.58% Senior Notes, Series B, due June 4, 2036 (the “Series B Notes,” and, together with the Series A Notes, the “NW Natural Water Notes”), to certa…
Creation of Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above and referenced under
and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of NW Holdings or Northwest Natural Gas Company (NW Natural), whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, unless expressly incorporated by specific reference to such filing. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amende…
Other Events As previously disclosed, on August 29, 2025, Northwest Natural Gas Company (NW Natural), a wholly owned subsidiary of Northwest Natural Holding Company (NW Holdings), filed a request for a general rate increase (Rate Case) with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC) under Washington's multi-year rate plan statute. Approximately 99,000 or 12% of NW Natural’s customers are in, and approximately 8% of NW Natural’s revenues are derived from, Washington. The rem…