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RGC Resources, Inc. (RGCO)
NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$24.20+1.09%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, which adds to the elevated risk profile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Gas
- Market cap
- $249.15M
- Employees
- 106
- IPO date
- 1999-03-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$26.80consensus
Range $25.51 – $35.88
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$59.29consensus
Range $59.29 – $59.29
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $24 RGCO trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.1x
peer 19.0x · own history —
Premium
0.9x peer
Growth the price needs
-10%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$26.80
range $25.51 – $35.26
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
75th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
9th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -16.7% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.05 (-16.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$133.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$288.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,461.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for net income and EPS growth in Q3 earnings
Why it matters: Growth in net income and EPS shows the company is on track with its goals. Strong results can boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Net income and EPS growth reported above 10% year over year in Q3.
Disproves:Net income and EPS growth reported below 0% year over year in Q3.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RGCO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for RGCO and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, NI, and UGI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting RGCO and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RGCO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If RGCO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ATO, NI, and UGI start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping RGCO and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0413d agoItem 1.01
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On June 2, 2026, Roanoke Gas Company (“Roanoke”), the utility subsidiary of RGC Resources, Inc. (“Resources”), entered into an unsecured delayed-draw Promissory Note in the principal amount of $15,000,000 (“Note”) through a Fourth Amendment to the Loan Agreement ("Loan Agreement") with Pinnacle Bank (“Pinnacle”) originally entered on March 24, 2023 and further amended on March 31, 2024, March 31, 2025 and March 17, 2026. Under the provisions of the L…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.