Reading OGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OGS free→Reading OGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OGS free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 13% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The stock's outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key Utilities bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $76.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 OGS trades at 17× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $88 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $79–$99. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.62 → $0.64 (+2.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$181.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if OGS is on track to meet its financial guidance.
Confirms one read:OGS reports net income within the guided range of $294 million to $302 million.
Confirms the other:Net income is below the expected range. This shows possible problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OGS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$79.00 – $99.00 (median $89.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OGS One Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
ONE Gas continues to affirm its financial guidance for 2026, maintaining confidence in its strategic plan.
ONE Gas plans to invest approximately $800 million in capital expenditures, including asset removal costs, in 2026.
ONE Gas aims to maintain its dividend payout, with a declared quarterly dividend of $0.68 per share.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is crucial for growth and service expansion for One Gas.
Confirms:Capital investments are at or above $800 million for 2026.
Disproves:Capital investments are much lower than the $800 million target.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend is key for shareholder confidence. A stable payout shows commitment to returns.
Confirms:The company declares a cash dividend of 68 cents per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend payout for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on capital investments is key to OGS's growth and service expansion.
Confirms:OGS says capital spending is on track or over $800 million for 2026.
Disproves:Capital spending is much lower than the $800 million goal.
Why it matters: This bill could enhance revenue recovery mechanisms for One Gas in Kansas.
Confirms:The bill's success will help recover infrastructure costs.
Disproves:There are major delays or pushback on the bill.
Why it matters: This law may help OGS recover costs. This could change future earnings.
Confirms:OGS expects more money from infrastructure investments because of the new law.
Disproves:Revenue recovery does not improve even with the new law.
Why it matters: The result will affect revenue and rules for One Gas in Oklahoma.
Confirms one read:The hearing results in approval of the $28.7 million base rate increase.
Confirms the other:The hearing denies the requested rate increase or delays the decision.
Why it matters: Affirming guidance shows confidence in future performance. It gives investors trust in the company's path.
Confirms:The company confirms its financial guidance for 2026 during the Q2 earnings call.
Disproves:The company revises down its financial guidance for 2026 during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for One Gas. It may improve investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5% year over year.
Other Events On May 4, 2026, our board of directors declared a cash dividend of 68 cents per share of common stock, payable June 2, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 18, 2026.
Regulation FD Disclosure On May 4, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, affirmed our 2026 financial guidance and announced that our board of directors declared a cash dividend of 68 cents per share of common stock. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 23, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “ Equity Distribution Agreement ”) with BofA Securities, Inc. (“ BofA Securities ”), BTIG, LLC (“ BTIG ”), Huntington Securities, Inc. (“ HSI ”), J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“ J.P. Morgan ”), Mizuho Securities USA LLC (“ Mizuho ”), RBC Capital Markets, LLC (“ RBC ”) and Truist Securities, Inc. (“ TSI ”), each acting as sales agent for the Company…
Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers . On February 18, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that effective March 1, 2026, Curtis L. Dinan, 58, the Company’s senior vice president and chief operating officer, will be promoted to the position of president and chief operating officer and Robert S. McAnnally, 62, the Company’s president and chief executive officer will continue in the role of chief executive officer. Mr. D…