One Gas (OGS)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$77.93-0.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge One Gas’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.06 → 5.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	835.81M
EPS	—	1.508
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.48B
EPS	—	4.887
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.58B
EPS	—	5.007

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures of $800 million in 2026	It plans $800 million in capital spending this year.	Intact	Capital expenditures fall below $700 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $173.502M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $800 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026173,502,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital investments guidance remained steady at approximately $800 million for 2026. Actual capital expenditures were $188.3 million in 2026-Q2 and $169.6 million in 2026-Q1, showing consistent investment. The trajectory is stable and aligned with management's stated plan. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly dividend of $0.68 per share	The company maintains a quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.65 per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $4.7 in 2026	The company maintains a quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $4.65 and $4.77. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.74 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1f200d4f-c954-42fa-9718-ca1f929a2aa2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue near $3 billion in 2026	One Gas keeps steady revenue near $3 billion in 2026.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $2.9 billion in FY26	Revenue: $411.639M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.98 billion total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026411,639,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1f200d4f-c954-42fa-9718-ca1f929a2aa2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.01

$5.02 → $5.01 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.58B

$2.56B → $2.58B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.02	$2,563,793,410	9 / 8
2026-07-25	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-28	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-29	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-07-31	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$5.02	$2,563,793,781	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$5.02	$2,563,793,781	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$5.02	$2,563,793,781	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$5.02	$2,563,793,781	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$5.02	$2,563,750,910	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$5.03	$2,563,793,410	9 / 8
2026-08-09	$5.03	$2,563,793,410	9 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.03	$2,563,793,410	9 / 8
2026-08-12	$5.05	$2,566,120,610	9 / 7
2026-08-13	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.03	$2,544,892,140	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.05	$2,553,710,054	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.05	$2,554,596,777	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.06	$2,549,965,263	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.06	$2,549,965,263	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.06	$2,549,965,263	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.06	$2,549,965,263	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.06	$2,549,965,263	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$5.05	$2,548,108,121	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-05	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-06	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-07	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-08	$5.04	$2,579,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-09	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-10	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-11	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-12	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-13	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-14	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-15	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-16	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-17	$5.03	$2,580,719,605	7 / 5
2026-10-18	$5.02	$2,580,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-19	$5.02	$2,580,594,605	7 / 5
2026-10-20	$5.02	$2,580,269,605	7 / 5
2026-10-21	$5.01	$2,578,126,843	7 / 5
2026-10-22	$5.01	$2,577,751,843	7 / 5
2026-10-23	$5.01	$2,577,751,843	7 / 5
2026-10-24	$5.01	$2,578,001,843	7 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	1
2026-06-01	5	5	1
2026-07-01	5	4	1
2026-08-01	6	4	1
2026-09-01	7	3	0
2026-10-01	7	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 21 · prior Jun 24

$80.00 → $78.00-2.5%

BTIGOct 20 · prior Jul 23

$96.00 → $89.00-7.3%

JefferiesOct 7

$80.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 29

$86.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$52.80$105.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures of $800 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $173.502M
Quarterly dividend of $0.68 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $4.7 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share
Annual revenue near $3 billion in 2026Revenue: $411.639M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

One Gas outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OGS is a regulated utility with a steady investment and dividend plan, while recent earnings performance has been strong. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has moved from high to medium, and management execution has been mixed.

What's priced into One Gas

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has raised 2026 adjusted earnings expectations, kept capital investment plans steady, and maintained the quarterly dividend. Recent financial performance is strong, though earnings surprises have been trending down and a deep miss in the recent past remains a caution; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.

What One Gas hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining earnings delivery and avoiding a reversal of its recently raised guidance, which would also damage credibility. Near-term support could come if the Fed begins cutting rates or utility peers continue to report strong earnings and raise guidance.