Reading CTRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRI free→Reading CTRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRI free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with CTRI compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32, CTRI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 60× p/e (3.1× the 19× p/e peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $44 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 28% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.21 → $0.20 (-6.6% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$179.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$394.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,256.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. Risk fell, indicating a reduction in the overall risk level. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment. The recent financial performance was noted as weak, reflecting difficulties in earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Centuri's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again toward 6% or more.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 6%. This shows ongoing challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. We do not have, and expressly disclaim, any obligation to release publicly any updates or any changes in our expectations or any change in events, condit…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTRI CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company reiterates its full year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.24 to $3.54 billion.
The company expects net capital expenditures of $75 to $90 million in 2026.
The company reiterates its full year 2026 gross margin guidance.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Centuri Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) approved an increase in the size of the Board from eight to nine members and elected Mr. Steven E. Nielsen to fill the vacancy created by such increase, effective immediately. Mr. Nielsen spent 31 years at Dycom Industries, Inc. (NYSE: DY) (“Dycom”), m…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. We do not have, and expressly disclaim, any obligation to release publicly any updates or any changes in our expectations or any change in events, condit…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 18, 2025, James W. Connell, Jr., Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer of Centuri Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company of his decision to resign as Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer, effective January 31, 2026. Mr. Connell’s resignation was a personal decision to pu…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwritten Offering On November 12, 2025, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“J.P. Morgan”) and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell 7,441,860 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (“C…