CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. (CTRI)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-09
$20.16-2.61%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Gross margin near $270 million in 2026: FY26 GM guidance mid $270M vs target $270M; low $255M at trip line.
Centuri won over $960 million in new contracts in 2026. The company aims for revenue near $3.54 billion this year. Gross margin guidance is steady. These support a recovery in sales and profits.
Centuri's recent revenue fell in early 2026. Profit margins remain fragile. The stock is down 36% from its high. These show risks to the turnaround story.
The price is about 42% above our fair value near $19. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth. We see this as too optimistic given current risks.
Breaks if: New contract awards fall below $300 million over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below $255 million in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.24 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in a turbulent sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak, and management faces challenges despite some positive operational metrics.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to the expensive valuation compared to peers, but not fully reflecting the weak recent performance. The expectations gap indicates that the market anticipates some improvement, but confidence in this is low.
Management is on track with priorities like revenue growth and backlog expansion. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and there is elevated risk in the near term, especially given the company's history of misses.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to integrate the recent acquisition effectively and sustain revenue growth. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector peers will be crucial for CTRI's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company maintained its revenue guidance for 2026, reinforcing growth objectives. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, CTRI faces a mixed outlook with potential for improvement but significant risks. Not investment advice.