CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. (CTRI)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.34+0.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	982.79M
EPS	—	0.227
FY 2026 · Annual
Base revenue	$3.5B–$3.7B	—
Revenue	$3.59B–$3.79B	3.71B
EPS	—	0.682
Base revenue growth	10%–15%	—
EBITDA	$285M–$310Mnon-GAAP	—
Gross margin	8.7%–9.7%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.19B
EPS	—	0.989

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain new contract awards above $300 million in 2026	Centuri won over $960 million in new contracts in 2026.	Intact	New contract awards fall below $300 million over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near $270 million in 2026	Gross margin guidance is steady.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below $255 million in FY26	Gross margin: 7.19% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$270 million. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 4, 20267.187423 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 33591458-0aa7-4bdb-9e37-a363ce104e2c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $3.24 billion in 2026	A primary condition in CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.24 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.24 billion in FY26	Revenue: $961.986M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.24 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026961,986,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 33591458-0aa7-4bdb-9e37-a363ce104e2c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.99 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.79B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$0.99	$3,790,664,297	5 / 5
2026-08-07	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-11	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-14	$0.99	$4,036,785,607	5 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	2	2
2026-06-01	3	2	2
2026-07-01	3	2	2
2026-08-01	3	2	2
2026-09-01	3	2	2
2026-10-01	3	2	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Robert W. BairdSep 29 · prior Aug 5

$33.00 → $26.00-21.2%

$0$18.15$36.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain new contract awards above $300 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near $270 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches at least $3.24 billion in 2026Revenue: $961.986M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CTRI is a growth-oriented business with a backlog that supports future work, rather than a clearly established steady compounder. The long-term thesis is still intact, but its current state is watch: recent financial performance trails its industry cohort, and the overall risk level is elevated.

What's priced into CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually concentrated expectations risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, revenue rose 33% year over year in the second quarter, backlog reached about $6.4 billion, and year-to-date bookings produced a 1.3x book-to-bill ratio, ahead of management’s approximate 1.2x full-year aim. These measures show execution on growth priorities, but recent financial performance remains weak relative to peers, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The JJ White integration is early, while a reversal of the recent guidance increase would raise a credibility concern.

What CENTURI HOLDINGS, INC. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue and backlog growth, meeting the bookings target, and integrating JJ White as expected. Near-term support could come if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates or utility peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance. A guidance reversal or continued weak performance versus peers would weigh on the thesis.