Reading CPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPK free→Reading CPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPK free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality is neutral and management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If CPK cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $122 CPK trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.12 → $1.07 (-4.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$76.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,254.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming the $450-$500 million guidance shows a focus on growth and infrastructure.
Confirms:Management will share the 2026 capital spending plan in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts the 2026 capital spending plan to less than $450 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2026 full year capital guidance range of $450 million to $500 million.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00 per share.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2025 EPS guidance range of $6.15 to $6.35 per share.
Why it matters: Strong growth in adjusted gross margin shows good use of capital and high customer demand.
Confirms:In Q2, the adjusted gross margin was over $206 million.
Disproves:In Q2, the adjusted gross margin was under $200 million.
Why it matters: Approval would help revenue growth. It would also show the company's regulatory plan works.
Confirms:The Florida Public Service Commission says yes to the rate case from Florida City Gas.
Disproves:The rate case is denied or delayed beyond expectations.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance of $7.75 to $8.00 indicates strong long-term growth prospects.
Confirms:Management reaffirms the 2028 EPS guidance during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers the 2028 EPS guidance to below $7.75.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show growth trends and how well the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share is over $2.50, showing strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings per share is below $2.00, hinting at possible problems.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Chesapeake Utilities Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Beth W. Cooper, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer and Assistant Secretary, has announced her intention to retire effective June 30, 2026, after over 36 years with the Company. The Board…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein.