NW Natural (NWN)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$49.87-0.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NW Natural’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	451.46M
EPS	—	1.645
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.36B
EPS	$2.95–$3.15	3.087
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	3.223

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital allocation to avoid excessive debt or off-balance obligations	A supporting condition in NW Natural's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain manageable debt levels and no material off-balance sheet obligations.	Intact	Material off-balance sheet obligations or debt levels impair credit profile	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS in the range $2.95 to $3.15 for 2026	Management reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95 to $3.15.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.95 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.95 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0ebccbfb-3380-4b9c-94b0-da38cfaf0a2c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95-$3.15 and expects EPS in the upper half of this range. Reported EPS grew from $2.11 in first half 2025 to $2.33 in first half 2026, consistent with the guidance and long-term EPS growth targets. The trajectory is delivering as expected. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Favorable resolution of Washington Utilities rate case	A supporting condition in NW Natural's published investment case. The stated target is Rate case settled without adverse revenue impact.	Improving	Rate case results in revenue cuts or lower allowed returns	Revenue +$20.1M vs no adverse impact SiEnergy settlement confirms $20.1M revenue increase from Washington rate case, supporting favorable resolution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 1, 2026	They plan a revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 2026.	Intact	Revenue increase falls below $20 million starting August 2026	Revenue: $243.552M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20.1 million USD increase. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026243,552,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0ebccbfb-3380-4b9c-94b0-da38cfaf0a2c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

Unavailable → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-03	$3.23	$1,477,013,330	5 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.23	$1,458,763,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.23	$1,458,763,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,426,557,143	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	3	1
2026-06-01	4	2	1
2026-07-01	4	2	1
2026-08-01	3	3	1
2026-09-01	3	3	0
2026-10-01	3	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 22

$51.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoOct 20 · prior May 11

$50.00 → $49.00-2.0%

BTIGOct 20

$56.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$30.80$61.60

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital allocation to avoid excessive debt or off-balance obligationsQualitative condition
EPS in the range $2.95 to $3.15 for 2026Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share
Revenue increase of $20.1 million starting August 1, 2026Revenue: $243.552M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NW Natural outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NWN is a regulated utility with a steady-growth business profile, but its current thesis is mixed rather than clearly strong. Recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though earnings quality is fragile and management signals have weakened.

What's priced into NW Natural

The valuation evidence is mixed: NWN is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a sizable premium to peers and is rated expensive overall. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified and fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management is on track with 2026 EPS guidance and the first-year revenue increase from the Washington rate case; first-half EPS growth supports that trajectory. The MX3 gas storage expansion is progressing, but it is not expected to contribute revenue yet. Earnings surprise trends, recent litigation, and a new financial obligation add risks, despite low estimated miss risk.

What NW Natural hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management sustaining its recently raised guidance and maintaining credibility, since a reversal and guidance cut would be a serious setback. Lower interest rates or continued earnings strength across utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while the headwind from the sector and weaker management signals remain relevant.