OPAL Fuels, Inc. (OPAL)
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.85-3.65%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $102.5 million: FY26 EBITDA guidance mid $102.5M vs target ~$102.5M; low $95.0M at trip threshold.
Opal Fuels aims to reach $102.5 million EBITDA in 2026. New RNG plants help grow revenue. The company raised its dividend rate to 12%.
Opal missed earnings recently and cut guidance. Capital moves show financial stress. Revenue growth is uncertain after the miss.
The price is about 36% below our fair value near $3. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth. Our view sees risk from recent earnings misses.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $95 million in FY26
Target Adjusted EBITDA range of $95 million to $110 million for fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth through new projects and operational improvements. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent weak financial performance and elevated risk factors.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that OPAL is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, the fragility in the sector adds a layer of uncertainty to its valuation.
Management is focused on meeting revenue and EBITDA guidance while advancing growth through new projects. Despite recent weak performance, there are signs of stability and potential for margin expansion through operational improvements.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth initiatives. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate decisions and performance of sector peers will play a crucial role in shaping OPAL's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: New dilutive capital raises or dividend cuts in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OPAL's performance will depend on its execution against guidance and broader sector dynamics. Not investment advice.