OPAL Fuels, Inc. (OPAL)

NASDAQUtilitiesEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.51-1.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge OPAL Fuels, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	101.3M
EPS	—	0.06
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	351.44M
EPS	—	-0.055
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	405.36M
EPS	—	0.265

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $102.5 million	Opal Fuels aims to reach $102.5 million EBITDA in 2026.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $95 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage capital allocation including security holder rights	A supporting condition in OPAL Fuels, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further dilutive capital actions in FY26.	Intact	New dilutive capital raises or dividend cuts in FY26	No new dilutive raises; dividend rate increased to 12.0% May 2026 amendment raised Series A-1 preferred dividend to 12%; no new dilutive equity or debt issuance reported. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Meet full year revenue guidance for 2026	A primary condition in OPAL Fuels, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Meet full year revenue guidance.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26	Revenue: $83.399M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Meet full year revenue guidance. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202683,399,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a89dd24e-02a6-4a53-b2c9-48cb1c38aa87. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $23.1 million versus $16.5 million a year earlier, while revenue was $83.4 million versus $80.5 million; Q1 revenue was $73.4 million versus $85.4 million. The EBITDA comparison shows delivery in Q2, but year-over-year revenue was lower in Q1 and full-year guidance attainment remains unconfirmed in these disclosures. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	1
2026-06-01	2	3	1
2026-07-01	2	2	1
2026-08-01	2	2	1
2026-09-01	2	2	1
2026-10-01	2	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of about $102.5 millionPublished status: Broken
Meet full year revenue guidance for 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

OPAL Fuels, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OPAL is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not an established steady compounder. Its long-term thesis has some operating support from rising RNG production and Q2 Adjusted EBITDA, while recent performance remains weak and the overall thesis state is watch.

What's priced into OPAL Fuels, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes OPAL as cheap versus peers, but also shows a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear less favorable than the valuation comparison alone suggests. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; confidence in these signals is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, performance depends on meeting full-year guidance, which remains unconfirmed in the supplied disclosures. Q2 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA were higher year over year, and RNG production rose, but Q1 revenue and Fuel Station Services volume fell year over year. Recent results are weak relative to the industry cohort, risk is high, and a guidance cut on the next call is a key concern.

What OPAL Fuels, Inc. hinges on

Over the multi-year view, the central test is whether OPAL can keep increasing production at existing facilities, build new RNG facilities, and grow Adjusted EBITDA while meeting guidance. Near-term fleet-conversion progress is less clear because Fuel Station Services volume declined year over year. Fed rate cuts and stronger results from utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while another guidance cut or earnings miss would weaken the thesis.