Southwest Gas Corp (SWX)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$91.15+0.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Southwest Gas Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.93 → 5.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	592.67M
EPS	—	1.785
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.94B
EPS	$4.17–$4.32	4.276
Capital expenditure	About $1.25B	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.06B
EPS	—	5.004

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities improves	Cash from operating activities improved to $162.1 million in 2026-Q1.	Broken	cash from operating activities falls below $150 million in any quarter	Cash from operations: $146.089M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $160 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026146,089,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.62	Southwest Gas keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.62 per share.	Under Pressure	dividend per share falls below $0.62 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.65 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.62 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.645 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75042d15-9e9e-4909-a13c-de05aafc0c6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS guidance of $4.17 to $4.32 for FY26	A supporting condition in Southwest Gas Corp's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $4.17 and $4.32.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.17 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.58 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $4.17 and $4.32. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.58 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75042d15-9e9e-4909-a13c-de05aafc0c6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase net income	Net income rose to $138.4 million in 2026-Q1 from $113.9 million a year earlier.	Under Pressure	net income falls below $130 million in any quarter	Net income: $42.122M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $140 million in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202642,122,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 75042d15-9e9e-4909-a13c-de05aafc0c6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.00

$4.90 → $5.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.90	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-25	$4.88	$2,194,042,660	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.84	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$4.89	$2,194,042,660	9 / 5
2026-07-28	$4.89	$2,194,042,660	9 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-30	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-31	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-01	$4.84	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-03	$4.84	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-04	$4.84	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.87	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-08	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$4.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.92	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-12	$4.94	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-13	$4.94	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-14	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$4.90	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$4.92	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$4.93	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$4.94	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-02	$4.94	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-03	$4.94	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-04	$4.94	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-05	$4.94	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-06	$4.99	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-07	$4.99	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-08	$4.99	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-09	$4.99	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-10	$4.99	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-11	$5.01	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-12	$5.01	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-10-13	$5.01	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-14	$5.01	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$5.01	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$5.01	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$5.01	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$5.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-19	$5.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-20	$5.01	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-21	$5.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-22	$5.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-23	$5.00	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-24	$5.00	Unavailable	6 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	9	0
2026-07-01	9	0
2026-08-01	8	0
2026-09-01	9	0
2026-10-01	10	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 5

$106.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankSep 29

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$58.30$116.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities improvesPublished status: Broken
Maintain dividend per share at $0.62Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve EPS guidance of $4.17 to $4.32 for FY26Diluted EPS: $0.58 per share
Increase net incomePublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Southwest Gas Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SWX is a regulated utility with a multi-year thesis tied to infrastructure investment, regulatory recovery, and dividend growth. The thesis is currently intact, though management execution is rated volatile and risk has risen from low to moderate.

What's priced into Southwest Gas Corp

SWX is described as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The evidence points to a negative expectations gap, but confidence in that estimate is medium, so the valuation picture is not definitive.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong and in the top half of the industry, with robust earnings quality. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 40% estimated miss probability make the next results a key risk; the sector backdrop is also a headwind. Over the multi-year view, progress on rate cases and the Great Basin expansion could support earnings visibility, while dividend growth remains an explicit management priority.

What Southwest Gas Corp hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, while progress on the Great Basin project and regulatory cases would support it. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength from sector peers could ease the utility-sector headwind. The recent president transition adds uncertainty, but the evidence does not describe its business impact.