Reading SWBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWBI free→Reading SWBI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SWBI free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
SWBI shows a stable management track record and robust earnings quality, though recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key industrial bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 SWBI trades at 60× p/e — 1.6× the 38× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $21 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.06 → $-0.06 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$112.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$272.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,778.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It can impact investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) comes in above $0.50, showing strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS is below $0.30. This shows weaker results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SWBI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. We do not have, and expressly disclaim, any obligation to release publicly any updates or any changes in our expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any forward-looking statement is based. The text included with this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on our website at www.smith…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SWBI Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions change interest rates. This can affect how much people spend and borrow.
Confirms one read:FOMC signals no rate hike, supporting consumer spending.
Confirms the other:FOMC announces a rate hike, which may slow consumer spending.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show consumer demand for firearms. This affects Smith & Wesson's sales.
Confirms:Retail sales grow more than 1% month over month, indicating strong consumer demand.
Disproves:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month, suggesting weak demand.
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. We do not have, and expressly disclaim, any obligation to release publicly any updates or any changes in our expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any forward-looking statement is based. The text included with this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on our website at www.smith…
and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. We do not have, and expressly disclaim, any obligation to release publicly any updates or any changes in our expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any forward-looking statement is based. The text included with this Current Report on Form 8-K is available on our website at www.smith…
have the meanings set forth in the First Amendment, including Exhibit A thereto. The First Amendment provides (a) in connection with the calculation of Consolidated Funded Indebtedness, for the exclusion of any Indebtedness of the guarantors relating to their Guarantee of the obligations of the Missouri Lease Tenant under the Missouri Lease until such time as the guarantors are obligated to discharge payment or performance responsibilities; (b) in connection with the calculation of Consolidat…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The description of the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement set forth under