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StepStone Group (STEP)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$47.05+5.99%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, STEP is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If STEP cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $5.59B
- Employees
- 1,310
- IPO date
- 2020-08-24
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$38.47consensus
Range $27.08 – $49.06
vs price: +26% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$71.87consensus
Range $66.52 – $94.67
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $47 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 21× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $35 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $55–$85. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.8x
peer 14.9x · own history 21.3x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
35%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$34.95
range $27.01 – $48.87
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 35% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
7th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.12x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish2 positive, 1 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.53 (-2.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.5% above current price.
Material events
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$217.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$469.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,508.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: The sector is easing, and a drop in revenue growth could signal bigger issues for StepStone.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:StepStone's revenue growth falls below the median of 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above the median of 12% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for STEP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting STEP and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If STEP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If STEP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on STEP and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping STEP and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2028d agoItem 2.02
as if fully set forth herein. The information included in, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-9.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.