StepStone Group (STEP)

NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-10-23

$42.04-3.29%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge StepStone Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.39 → 3.43 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	613.62M
EPS	—	0.788
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	2.45
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	1.91B
EPS	—	3.429

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operations toward positive	Cash from operations improved from -$66.5M to -$23.2M, showing progress.	Broken	Cash from operations remains below -$30M in FY26-Q4	Cash from operations: $-457.511M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves to >= -$23.2M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-457,511,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of $0.65 for fiscal year 2026	StepStone aims for $0.65 EPS in fiscal 2026, up from $0.40.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-1.41 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=0.65 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-1.41 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba55ed0d-ea2a-4187-894f-fb3a9d612870. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete strategic acquisitions to enhance market position	The company completed strategic acquisitions to boost growth.	Intact	Failure to complete key acquisitions by mid-2026	Acquisition completed vs mid-2026 target News and 8-K filings confirm the completion of the third exchange for SRE, SRA, and Private Debt equity interests in May 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.43

$3.30 → $3.43 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-25	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-28	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-29	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-30	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-31	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-01	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$3.30	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-03	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.31	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.31	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$3.33	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$3.33	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$3.33	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$3.33	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$3.33	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-03	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-04	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-05	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	$3.40	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-11	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-12	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-13	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$3.39	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$3.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$3.38	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$3.38	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$3.38	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$3.38	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-09	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-10	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-11	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.38	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-13	$3.36	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-14	$3.36	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$3.36	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$3.36	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$3.36	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-19	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-20	$3.37	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-21	$3.43	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-22	$3.43	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-23	$3.43	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-10-24	$3.43	Unavailable	7 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	7	1
2026-07-01	7	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 21

$63.00 → $61.00-3.2%

Wells FargoOct 1

$55.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$34.65$69.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operations toward positivePublished status: Broken
Achieve EPS of $0.65 for fiscal year 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

StepStone Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-sector growth story, not yet a proven earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is growing assets, but recent financial performance is weak and risk is elevated.

What's priced into StepStone Group

STEP is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation signal is stretched. The expectations gap is positive, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the degree of optimism already reflected in the valuation is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, assets under management and fee-earning capital have grown, in line with management’s stated priority. Near term, earnings execution is a concern: adjusted net income per share fell from $0.65 in 2026-Q3 to $0.48 in 2027-Q1, and the latest quarter was an earnings miss. The outlook also faces sector headwinds, while a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.

What StepStone Group hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether asset growth can translate into stronger earnings and whether management can improve earnings execution. A guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum. Evidence on the acquisition and equity-sale activity is limited, so its longer-term contribution remains unclear.