Reading SNDA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNDA free→Reading SNDA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNDA free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.91. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 SNDA trades at 2× p/s — 1.9× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $26 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $37–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 31% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=2391).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.15x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.80 → $-0.70 (+12.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$127.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$274.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,639.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNDA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Anton Nikodemus as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective June 15, 2026. Prior to joining the Company, Mr. Nikodemus, age 62, served as the President and Chief Executive Officer for Seaport Entertainm…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$37.00 – $45.00 (median $40.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SNDA Sonida Senior Living, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | full | moderate |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the CHP Merger and integrating 69 senior-housing communities.
Focus on improving operating income, which remains negative.
Improve cash flow from operations, which has been negative recently.
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The press release contains, and may implicate, forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause a…
and Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The press release contains, and may implicate, forward-looking statements regarding the Company and includes cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 18, 2026, Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (the “Company” ) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “ Distribution Agreement ”) with (i) RBC Capital Markets, LLC, BMO Capital Markets Corp., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, R. Seelaus & Co., LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, each as sales agent and/or…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 8, 2026, Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”) provided written notice to Mizuho Securities USA LLC (“ Mizuho ”) of its election to terminate the at-the-market issuance sales agreement, dated as of April 1, 2024, between the Company and Mizuho (“ Mizuho Sales Agreement ”). The termination of the Mizuho Sales Agreement is effective May 13, 2026. No early termination penalties were incurred by the Compan…