Reading PACS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PACS free→Reading PACS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PACS free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PACS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 PACS trades at 18× p/e — 1.3× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $29 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $48–$52. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.01x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.56 (+3.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 37.0% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$530.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,203.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it shows the sector is improving. This could boost PACS's prospects.
Confirms:Health Care revenue growth increases back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PACS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, PACS Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$48.00 – $52.00 (median $52.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-18
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PACS PACS Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased the full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $605 million to $625 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $555-$575M to $605-$625M, reflecting management's confidence in operational improvements. The trajectory shows delivering on growth expectations.
“We are increasing our full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $605 million to $625 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $555 million to $575 million.”
Management has reaffirmed the revenue guidance for 2026 at $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance reaffirmed at $5.65-$5.75B, indicating consistent expectations. Revenue grew from $1.35B in 2025-Q4 to $1.42B in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the target.
Management is focusing on improving cash flow from operations, which increased significantly in 2026-Q1.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Cash from operations increased to $236M in 2026-Q1 from a negative $3.39M in 2025-Q4, indicating a significant improvement in operational efficiency. The trajectory is delivering positive cash flow results.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 24, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of PACS Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Carey Hendrickson to serve as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, effective as of April 27, 2026. As Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Hendrickson will serve as the Company’s principal financial officer. In connection with Mr. Hendrickson’s appointme…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, PACS Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1 hereto) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of PACS Group, Inc. (the “Company”), upon the recommendation of its Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, appointed Patrick H. Conway, MD, MSc to the Board, effective immediately. Dr. Conway will serve as a Class III director for a term expiring at the Company’s annual meeting of stock…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 26, 2025, PACS Group, Inc. (the “Company”) and PACS Holdings, LLC (the “Borrower”) entered into an amendment (the “Sixth Amendment”) to the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of December 7, 2023, by and among the Company, the Borrower, Truist Bank (the “Administrative Agent”) and the lenders party thereto. The Sixth Amendment, among other things, waived all defaults and events of default previously identified to the Administ…
“We are reaffirming our revenue guidance of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion.”
“Revenue is expected to be in the range of $5.65 billion to $5.75 billion.”
“Cash from operations improved significantly this quarter, reaching $236 million.”