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Ensign Group (ENSG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$150.71+0.90%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ENSG is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $8.73B
- Employees
- 46,000
- IPO date
- 2007-05-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $150.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$107.96consensus
Range $95.16 – $125.50
vs price: +40% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$198.41consensus
Range $147.76 – $253.02
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $151 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $108 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.8x
peer 14.5x · own history 24.0x
Premium
1.5x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
40%
our forecast 21%
Our fair value
$107.67
range $91.67 – $123.61
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 40% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
95th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.63x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
55th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish5 analysts, 80% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.84 → $1.85 (+0.1% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$93.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,181.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for operating income growth to reach 20% in Q2
Why it matters: If growth reaches 20%, it shows that management is focused on making more money. This comes from being more efficient.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating income growth reported at or above 20% year over year for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported below 10% year over year for Q2.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ENSG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting ENSG and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ENSG and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If ENSG reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping ENSG and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ENSG and other Healthcare names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 13, 2026, the Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program pursuant to which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $40,000,000 of its common stock. The program will commence following expiration of the Company's current stock repurchase program. The Company may repurchase shares from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions, including pursuant to Rule 10b-18 and Rule 10b5‑1 plans, or by other means in accordance with applicable se…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.