Reading SGRY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SGRY free→Reading SGRY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SGRY free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while compared with sector peers, SGRY is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 SGRY trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $15–$30. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.68x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.06. 5 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$414.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,180.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If health care sector growth speeds up, it could boost Surgery Partners' performance.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth is speeding up to over 10% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 8% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SGRY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Surgery Partners, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. See the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$15.00 – $30.00 (median $18.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SGRY Surgery Partners, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided for an Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million for 2026. However, financials show a net income decline from -$15M in 2025-Q4 to -$35.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards profitability. The trajectory shows persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million.”
“Initial 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million.”
The company reaffirms its revenue guidance for 2026 to be between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $810.9M in 2026-Q1, down from $885M in 2025-Q4. The company has reaffirmed its revenue guidance for 2026, but the current trajectory shows a decline in quarterly revenue, indicating challenges in meeting the full-year target.
“The Company reaffirmed its outlook for 2026 revenues to be in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion.”
The company emphasizes improving cash flow from operations as a key financial metric.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operations was $11.7M in 2026-Q1, a significant drop from $103.4M in 2025-Q4. This indicates a declining trend in operational cash flow, suggesting challenges in maintaining liquidity and operational efficiency.
“Cash from operations was $11.7M in 2026-Q1.”
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Surgery Partners is doing financially and what to expect.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 2, 2026, Surgery Partners, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for the fourth quarter and the full year ended December 31, 2025. See the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for the purpose of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or other…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Supplemental Indenture On December 16, 2025, Surgery Center Holdings, Inc. (the “Issuer”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Surgery Partners, Inc. (the “Company”), issued an additional $425.0 million aggregate principal amount of 7.250% Senior Notes due 2032 (the “Notes”). In connection with the closing of the offering of the Notes, the Issuer and the direct and indirect subsidiaries of the Issuer that guarantee the Notes entered into a Third Supplement…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth, or incorporated by reference, in
Other Events. On December 11, 2025, Surgery Center Holdings, Inc. (the “Issuer”), entered into a purchase agreement with Barclays Capital Inc. as representative of certain initial purchasers, relating to the issuance and sale of $425.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the Issuer’s 7.250% senior unsecured notes due 2032 (the “Offering”). The net proceeds from the Offering will be used for general corporate purposes, including, but not limited to, repaying outstanding borrowings under i…
“Initial 2026 guidance for revenue in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion.”
“Cash from operations was $103.4M in 2025-Q4.”