Reading ASTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTH free→Reading ASTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTH free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ASTH trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 ASTH trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $43 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $37–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 45%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.73 (+12.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$539.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,641.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target shows strong growth momentum. It would support management's goal of $4.1 billion for FY 2026.
Confirms:Q2 2026 total revenue reported at or above $1 billion.
Disproves:Q2 2026 total revenue was below $965 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The stockholders of Astrana Health, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the Astrana Health, Inc. Amended and Restated 2024 Equity Incentive Plan (as amended and restated, the “2024 Plan”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders of the Company (the “Annual Meeting”) held on June 10, 2026. The 2024 Plan was previously approved by the Company’s Board of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$37.00 – $50.00 (median $43.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASTH Astrana Health, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to reach $4.1 billion in revenue for the fiscal year 2026.
Management is focused on increasing free cash flow through operational improvements.
Management aims to enhance operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could show operational problems. This may affect how investors feel.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was at or above $65 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was below $65 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows good financial health. It helps with capital allocation goals.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported above $132.5 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $105 million for Q2 2026.
to this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, is being “furnished” and, as such, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 7, 2026, Dinesh Kumar, M.D., the Chief Medical Officer of Astrana Health, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention to resign, effective as of June 1, 2026. Dr. Kumar’s resignation is not a result of any disagreement with the Company. The Company thanks Dr. Kumar for his contributions and wishes him the best in his future e…
Other Events. On July 2, 2025, Astrana Health, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K , as amended by a Form 8-K/A filed on September 11, 2025, to report that it had completed the acquisition of all of the outstanding equity interests of Prospect Health Plan, Inc. and Alta Newport Hospital, LLC (d/b/a Foothill Regional Medical Center), and substantially all the assets of certain direct and indirect subsidiaries of PHP Holdings, LLC (“PHPH”), pursuant to the Asset and Equity P…
to this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, is being “furnished” and, as such, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference…