Reading INNV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INNV free→Reading INNV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INNV free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.16 INNV trades at 28× p/e — 1.9× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $4.98 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 84% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.08 (+33.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$206.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$630.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,321.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Health Care is slowing down. If revenue growth picks up, it could help Innovage's outlook.
Confirms:Health Care revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health Care revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INNV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 11, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of InnovAge Holding Corp. (the “Company”) appointed Ms. Jennifer Browne as President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company, effective as of June 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Jennifer Browne, age 43, was most recently Chief Operating Officer at Strive Health, a healthcare company speciali…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INNV Innovage Holding Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | high |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the fiscal 2026 revenue guidance based on year-to-date performance.
Management has increased the Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026.
Appointing new President and COO to strengthen leadership team.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show if Innovage can improve its mixed signals. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up. It also shows a profit instead of a loss.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses. It also shows revenue growth slowing down.
by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such discl…
by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such discl…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of InnovAge Holding Corp. (the “Company”) appointed Pavithra Mahesh and Sean Traynor as members of the Board, effective immediately. Ms. Mahesh and Mr. Traynor will serve as a Class III director and Class I director, respectively, until the Company’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders to be held…
by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. This information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference to such discl…