Reading AVAH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVAH free→
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$7.52+4.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential for AVAH to cut guidance after recently raising it, which could harm credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA, which could influence AVAH's momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $1.54B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-04-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$9.94consensus
Range $9.14 – $10.81
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$12.68consensus
Range $12.67 – $13.81
vs price: -41% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $7.23 AVAH trades at 11× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $9.87 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $9.00–$11. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.6x
peer 14.5x · own history —
Premium
0.7x peer
Growth the price needs
-27%
our forecast 16%
Our fair value
$9.87
range $9.74 – $10.73
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
93rd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
26th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +5.6% / 30d, n=11for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.17 (+5.6% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$519.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,944.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "inexpensive" to "fair." Risk rose. The sector backdrop fell. Recent financial performance remained strong. Earnings quality is fragile.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for peers' quality signals weakening
Why it matters: If other companies show weaker signals, Aveanna may look better. This could get investors interested.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:At least two peer companies show a drop in quality status to 'fragile' or worse.
Disproves:Most peer companies maintain or improve their quality status to 'robust'.
Competitive landscape
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVAH yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth re-acceleration in Health Care
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting AVAH and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AVAH beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +48% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AVAH and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If AVAH reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-02), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping AVAH and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0215d agoItem 8.01
Other Events On June 1, 2026, Pediatric Services of America, LLC, a Georgia limited liability company (the “Buyer”) and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), completed the purchase of Family First Holding, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Acquired Company”), in accordance with the Equity Interest Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) as described on the Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 12, 2026 with the U.S. Securities a…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.