Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.38+0.45%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.91 → 0.91 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	695.57M
EPS	—	0.215
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.63B–$2.65B	2.69B
EPS	—	0.825
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.9B
EPS	—	0.907

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $340 million in 2026	Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $340 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $328 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of Family First acquisition	The Family First acquisition expands services and supports growth.	Intact	Acquisition fails to contribute to revenue growth or causes operational issues	Qualitative: Integration complete, 2026 outlook raised to 7-10% growth Acquisition closed June 2026; 2026 outlook raised to 7-10% growth; Q2 earnings beat estimates. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The acquisition of Family First Homecare was completed on June 1, 2026, for $175.5 million cash, expanding Aveanna's pediatric home care footprint across seven states. This milestone was achieved as planned, delivering on the stated strategic growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 31.7% in 2026	A supporting condition in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=31.7%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 30% in FY26	Gross margin: 32.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=31.7%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 202632.592176 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8612bd12-5861-4662-a2eb-9126b0f11302. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $2.64 billion in 2026	Aveanna Healthcare grows revenue about 7% to $2.64 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.56 billion in FY26	Revenue: $670.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.64B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026670,483,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8612bd12-5861-4662-a2eb-9126b0f11302. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$0.91

$0.78 → $0.91 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.90B

$2.80B → $2.90B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.78	$2,801,627,420	5 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.86	$2,877,102,224	5 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.88	$2,888,462,224	5 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.88	$2,888,462,224	5 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.88	$2,888,462,224	5 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.88	$2,891,862,224	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$0.88	$2,891,862,224	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.88	$2,891,862,224	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.88	$2,891,862,224	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.90	$2,891,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.91	$2,898,862,224	6 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.91	$2,898,848,284	6 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-19	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-20	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-21	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-22	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-23	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8
2026-10-24	$0.91	$2,898,852,384	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	5
2026-06-01	8	4
2026-07-01	8	3
2026-08-01	8	3
2026-09-01	8	3
2026-10-01	8	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $340 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 31.7% in 2026Gross margin: 32.59%
Revenue reaches about $2.64 billion in 2026Revenue: $670.483M

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-36.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AVAH is a growth-focused healthcare business with added scale from its recently completed Family First Homecare acquisition. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance, though earnings quality is fragile and risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc.

The evidence describes AVAH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s assessment, and labels the current setup justified rather than broadly fragile. Confidence in that valuation read is medium, so it does not remove the need for reliable execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, recent results and successive increases to 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance show positive operating momentum. Management has completed the Family First acquisition as planned, but past deep misses and recent peer misses leave some risk around guidance delivery.

What Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on maintaining the growth and operating improvements behind higher guidance. A guidance cut after recent increases would damage credibility, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop; weakening job growth could add pressure to cyclical healthcare businesses.