Reading BKD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKD free→Reading BKD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKD free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 59% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If BKD cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 BKD trades at 1× p/s — 1.3× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $32 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.05x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.09 → $-0.05 (+41.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 63.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$324.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,922.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Brookdale is doing better or worse financially.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth is speeding up again toward past highs.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline or losses.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results and announcing a conference call to review these results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Supplemental information related to the Company's first quarter 2026 results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKD Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to deliver positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow for the full year 2025.
The company aims for a year-over-year RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% for the full year 2026.
The company maintains its Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $502 million to $516 million for 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 17, 2026, Dr. Jordan R. Asher, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company that he will not stand for re-election at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). Dr. Asher will continue to serve as a director until the expiration of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 8, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its occupancy for March 2026 and certain other information regarding the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results and announcing a conference call to review these results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Supplemental information related to the Company's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.2. The information furnished pursuant to…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing certain preliminary financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report on Form 8-K (including the exhibit hereto) shall not be considered "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities…