Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (BKD)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$12.14+0.41%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Brookdale aims to grow revenue to about $509 million in 2026. It targets adjusted EBITDA near $509 million. The company plans to increase RevPAR by 8% to 9% in 2026. Recent earnings beats show some operational improvement.
Revenue declined 6% recently and debt rose, threatening financial health. The company is loss-making with negative EPS expected in 2026. Market expects revenue to shrink about 1% next year.
The price is about 57% below our fair value near $36. Analysts expect about 1% revenue decline. Our view sees modest growth but risk remains from losses and debt.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $445 million in FY26
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $502 million to $516 million for full year 2026 as reiterated in multiple disclosures.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the healthcare sector. BKD is currently navigating challenges while maintaining some positive financial momentum, but its loss-making status raises concerns.
The market appears to price BKD as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. However, there is a medium level of confidence in the current valuation, indicating that investors are cautious about future performance.
Management has set ambitious targets for revenue per available room (RevPAR) and adjusted EBITDA, which have shown some positive results recently. However, the company remains loss-making, and its recent quality and momentum metrics have declined, suggesting potential challenges ahead.
The thesis hinges on BKD's ability to meet its guidance and navigate potential economic headwinds, such as a weakening jobs report. Additionally, performance of sector peers like HCA and THC will be crucial in determining BKD's trajectory in the healthcare market.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reported occupancy gains in August. This supports the goal to increase RevPAR by 8% to 9% in 2026. However, real estate bets may hinder portfolio optimization amid occupancy issues.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $502 million to $516 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 4.3% and 5.6% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q1 respectively, supporting the guidance. The trajectory is delivering as stated.
“We remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“April's occupancy trends are solidly on track for us to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance levels of $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“Full Year 2026 Guidance Adjusted EBITDA $502 million to $516 million.”
Breaks if: EPS remains negative through FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $445 million in FY26
Deliver Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $502 million to $516 million for full year 2026 as reiterated in multiple disclosures.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $502 million to $516 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 4.3% and 5.6% year-over-year in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q1 respectively, supporting the guidance. The trajectory is delivering as stated.
“We remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“April's occupancy trends are solidly on track for us to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance levels of $502 million to $516 million in Adjusted EBITDA.”
“Full Year 2026 Guidance Adjusted EBITDA $502 million to $516 million.”
Breaks if: RevPAR growth falls below 5% in FY26
Achieve year-over-year growth in consolidated revenue per available unit (RevPAR) within the range of 8% to 9% for full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reiterated full year 2026 guidance of 8% to 9% RevPAR growth. Actual consolidated RevPAR grew 8.2% year-over-year in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, matching the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering as guided.
“We remain on track to deliver on our 2026 guidance of 8% to 9% RevPAR year-over-year growth.”
“April's occupancy trends are solidly on track for us to deliver on our full year 2026 guidance levels of RevPAR year-over-year growth of 8% to 9%.”
“Full Year 2026 Guidance RevPAR year-over-year growth 8.0% to 9.0%.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BKD's performance will depend on its operational execution and the broader economic environment. Not investment advice.