Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (BKD)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.08-1.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	724.37M
EPS	—	-0.013
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.93B
EPS	—	0.03
EBITDA	$502M–$516Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.01B
EPS	—	0.172

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $509 million in 2026	It targets adjusted EBITDA near $509 million.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $445 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew year-over-year by 4.3% in 2026-Q2 to $122 million and by 5.6% in 2026-Q1 to $131 million, supporting the reiterated full year 2026 guidance range of $502 million to $516 million. Management is delivering consistent EBITDA growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return to positive EPS by 2027	A supporting condition in Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.15.	Improving	EPS remains negative through FY27	Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.15. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: aa06b168-91c3-4d37-8a81-290373e8ce18. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $509 million in 2026	Brookdale aims to grow revenue to about $509 million in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $445 million in FY26	Revenue: $718.583M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$509 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026718,583,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: aa06b168-91c3-4d37-8a81-290373e8ce18. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA grew year-over-year by 4.3% in 2026-Q2 to $122 million and by 5.6% in 2026-Q1 to $131 million, supporting the reiterated full year 2026 guidance range of $502 million to $516 million. Management is delivering consistent EBITDA growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% in 2026	A supporting condition in Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 8% to 9% YoY.	Intact	RevPAR growth falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Consolidated RevPAR grew 8.2% year-over-year in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, matching the reiterated full year 2026 guidance range of 8% to 9% growth. Management is delivering on this priority with consistent RevPAR growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$3.01B

$3.07B → $3.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$3,073,156,480	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$3,072,752,680	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$3,072,752,680	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,072,232,081	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$3,011,606,408	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$3,011,606,408	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$3,007,586,408	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$3,007,586,408	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$3,007,586,408	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$3,007,310,008	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,007,627,808	2 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,007,582,208	2 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,005,764,008	2 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,005,764,008	2 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,005,508,208	2 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $509 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Return to positive EPS by 2027Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share
Revenue reaches about $509 million in 2026Revenue: $718.583M
RevPAR growth of 8% to 9% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BKD is an operating-recovery and execution story in a Healthcare sector with a supportive backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, and recent results have improved the signal to mildly favorable, but the business remains loss-making and risk is elevated.

What's priced into Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.

The evidence characterizes BKD as cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s view. Pricing is tagged as justified, and no fragility signals were identified, though confidence in the valuation read is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results have been strong, with three reported earnings beats and RevPAR growth of 8.2% in both the first and second quarters of 2026, in line with full-year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA also grew year over year, but the full-year guidance is only partly supported by the evidence, and the path to positive adjusted free cash flow remains unclear. Earnings surprises have been trending down, so a guidance cut is a meaningful risk despite the low estimated near-term miss risk.

What Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on BKD sustaining RevPAR growth and delivering its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. A guidance cut or further weakening in job growth could raise recession concerns and weigh on cyclical Healthcare businesses. Continued strong results and higher guidance from sector peers such as HCA, THC, and EHC would support the sector backdrop.