Reading NHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NHC free→Reading NHC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NHC free→NYSE MKTHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with NHC compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA, which could influence NHC's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $190.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $191 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $117 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 64% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$280.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,313.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted net income shows that the company is doing well.
Confirms:Adjusted net income for Q2 2026 increases year over year by more than 20%.
Disproves:Adjusted net income growth is less than 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand M&A activity in skilled nursing facilities
Acquisition aligns with M&A growth strategy.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 26, 2026, National HealthCare Corporation (“NHC”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) among NHC, as borrower, certain subsidiaries of NHC, as the guarantors, the lenders from time to time party thereto, and Bank of America, N.A. (“Bank of America”), as administrative agent, swingline lender and issuer of letters of credit. BofA Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC are acting as joint lead arrangers and BofA Se…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NHC National Healthcare, Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on acquiring skilled nursing facilities to enhance growth.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Improve capital allocation to optimize financial performance.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show that a company is financially healthy. This helps shareholders.
Confirms:NHC declares a dividend of at least $0.64 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:NHC cuts or suspends its dividend payment.
Why it matters: Closing this $560 million acquisition would boost NHC's asset base and growth potential.
Confirms:The acquisition will close in Q3 2026 if there are no delays or issues.
Disproves:The deal may be delayed or fail. This could happen because of rules or money issues.
Why it matters: Changes in per diem rates can affect revenue and profits for NHC's nursing facilities.
Confirms one read:Skilled nursing per diem rates increase by more than 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Skilled nursing per diem rates decrease or remain flat year over year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
to the extent such information is responsive to the disclosure requirements of
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), NHC/OP, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Buyer”) and a wholly-owned subsidiary of National HealthCare Corporation (“NHC”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Agreement”) with National Health Corporation, a Tennessee corporation (“Seller”), to purchase from Seller the land, buildings, and other specified assets of Seller’s portfolio of five skilled nursing facilities, four of which are locat…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION National HealthCare Corporation (“NHC”) issued a press release on May 8, 2026, announcing its March 31, 2026 earnings. The entire press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.