Reading PNTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PNTG free→Reading PNTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PNTG free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and its capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the industry. Peer multiples imply a price about 74% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If PNTG cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 PNTG trades at 30× p/e — 2.1× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $19 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 76% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.33 (+3.1% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,606.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results can provide insights into company performance and future outlook. This is crucial for investors.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth and positive guidance.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows falling revenue and bad guidance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PNTG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Facilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PNTG Pennant Group, Inc. (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HCA HCA Healthcare | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
THC Tenet Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
EHC Encompass Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | full | moderate |
UHS Universal Health Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase annual revenue to between $1.133 billion and $1.172 billion for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $229.0M in 2025-Q3 to $285.4M in 2026-Q1, showing progress towards the annual target of $1.133B-$1.172B. The trajectory is delivering on management's revenue growth guidance.
“Total revenue for the first quarter was $285.4 million, an increase of $75.5 million or 36.0% over the prior year quarter.”
“Management is providing 2026 annual guidance as follows: total revenue is anticipated to be between $1,133.6 million and $1,171.8 million;”
Management aims to achieve adjusted earnings per diluted share between $1.26 and $1.36 for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. EPS was $0.24 in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the annual EPS target of $1.26-$1.36. The trajectory is aligned with management's EPS guidance.
“Pennant also reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.32 for the quarter.”
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA prior to NCI between $94.2 million and $100.0 million for 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Management has set a target for adjusted EBITDA prior to NCI between $94.2M and $100.0M for 2026. Financials for 2026-Q1 do not yet provide specific EBITDA figures, so progress is not yet measurable.
“Full year adjusted EBITDA prior to NCI is anticipated to be $94.2 million to $100.0 million.”
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a stronger health care sector. This may benefit Pennant Group.
Confirms:Health care sector revenue growth is speeding up toward 10% or more.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down and is below 10%.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
and Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 3, 2025, The Pennant Group, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into that certain First Amendment to Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “First Amendment”) with Truist Bank, as administrative agent, and certain banks as additional lenders, which amends the Company’s existing Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of July 31, 2024 (as amended by the First Amendment, the “Credit Facility”). Pursuant to the First Amendment, the Co…
Creation of a Direction Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The disclosure of the First Amendment contained in
“Full year 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share is anticipated to be between $1.26 and $1.36;”