Pennant Group, Inc. (The) (PNTG)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.88-0.83%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pennant Group, Inc. (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	303.9M
EPS	—	0.366
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.17B–$1.19B	1.18B
EPS	$1.34–$1.41non-GAAP	1.401
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.28B
EPS	—	1.587

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EPS between $1.26 and $1.36	Profit per share targets $1.26-$1.36, showing solid earnings.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.26 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $0.42 in first half 2025 to $0.49 in first half 2026. Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.34-$1.41 as of 2026-Q2, showing progress toward the EPS target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EBITDA between $94.2M and $100.0M	A supporting condition in Pennant Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $94.2 million.	Intact	EBITDA falls below $94.2 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA prior to NCI guidance increased from $70.9M-$73.8M in 2025 to $101.5M-$105.1M for 2026. The company reported a 51.0% increase in adjusted EBITDA prior to NCI in 2026-Q2 versus prior year quarter, indicating delivery on this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue reaches $1.133B-$1.172B	A primary condition in Pennant Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.133 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $1.133 billion in FY26	Revenue: $297.984M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.133 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026297,984,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 234f08c4-2783-4ed7-be45-4c7892447633. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.60 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.28B

$1.26B → $1.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,256,312,943	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,256,312,943	3 / 5
2026-07-29	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,256,312,943	3 / 5
2026-07-31	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,256,312,943	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,256,312,943	3 / 5
2026-08-03	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.60	$1,256,316,710	7 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.61	$1,265,196,860	7 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.61	$1,265,196,860	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.61	$1,265,196,860	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.62	$1,275,953,860	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.62	$1,275,953,860	7 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,258,864,000	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,273,579,500	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,275,925,286	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EPS between $1.26 and $1.36Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EBITDA between $94.2M and $100.0MDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Annual revenue reaches $1.133B-$1.172BRevenue: $297.984M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pennant Group, Inc. (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PNTG is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a sector tailwind, rather than a deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the latest signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and earnings quality remains fragile.

What's priced into Pennant Group, Inc. (The)

The evidence describes the valuation as expensive, with PNTG trading at a substantial premium to peers and a stretched priced-in signal. The estimated expectations gap is positive but modest, and confidence in that estimate is low, so the valuation leaves limited room for execution to weaken.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is strong: first-half revenue and diluted EPS increased year over year, and management raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. The main near-term risk is a guidance cut; the latest reported earnings were in line after two earlier beats, while miss risk is rated quiet but reflects the company’s smaller size and a deep past miss.

What Pennant Group, Inc. (The) hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management continuing to deliver against its 2026 revenue, adjusted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA priorities. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.