Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.45-1.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Astrana Health, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.97 → 1.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.02B
EPS	—	0.265
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.98B
EPS	—	1.41
EBITDA	$267.5M	—
EBITDA (midpoint)	About $267.5M	—
Free cash flow	$105M–$132.5M	—
Operating cash flow	$125M–$145M	—
Revenue growth	2.48%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.38B
EPS	—	1.981

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve $15 million in synergies from Prospect acquisition by Q1 2026	It integrates acquisitions well and gains $15 million in synergies.	Intact	Synergies fall below $12 million by Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management closed the Prospect acquisition in 2025-Q4 and is on track to achieve $12-$15 million in synergies by 2026-Q2. The integration is progressing as planned with synergy realization underway. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase free cash flow to $132.5 million in FY 2026	Free cash flow rises to nearly $133 million.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $105 million in FY 2026	Free cash flow: $92.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $132.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202692,926,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Free cash flow was $64.1 million in 2026-Q1 and $92.9 million for the six months ended 2026-Q2. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 free cash flow guidance at $105 million to $132.5 million. The trajectory shows robust cash flow generation progressing toward the target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reach 16% revenue from fully capitated arrangements by Q1 2026	The company shifts more revenue to full-risk contracts, reaching 80%.	Intact	Percentage falls below 16% in Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reported approximately 80% full-risk capitation revenue in 2025-Q4, increasing slightly to 81% in 2026-Q2. This reflects steady progress in risk progression and alignment with value-based care goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve $4.1 billion revenue for FY 2026	A primary condition in Astrana Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.1 billion.	Improving	Revenue falls below $3.8 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $972.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.1 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026972,520,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d86bb444-99b8-40a5-8887-2ca0dd648c79. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $654.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $972.5 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong growth. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.98

Unavailable → $1.98 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.38B

$4.38B → $4.38B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,379,966,386	4 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$4,379,989,580	2 / 10
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$4,383,653,890	2 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,383,653,890	2 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$4,383,653,890	2 / 9
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$4,386,954,440	2 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,385,664,110	2 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$4,385,664,110	2 / 9
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$4,383,576,567	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,387,294,111	4 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.97	$4,384,035,100	5 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.97	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.97	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.97	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.97	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-13	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-14	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-15	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-16	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-17	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-18	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-19	$1.98	$4,383,999,530	5 / 8
2026-10-20	$1.98	$4,383,999,530	5 / 8
2026-10-21	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-22	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-23	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.98	$4,384,001,900	5 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve $15 million in synergies from Prospect acquisition by Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase free cash flow to $132.5 million in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Reach 16% revenue from fully capitated arrangements by Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve $4.1 billion revenue for FY 2026Revenue: $972.52M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Astrana Health, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ASTH is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a multi-year view that depends on continued execution. Recent results have been strong, and the thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though management’s progress on cash flow and full-risk contracts is mixed.

What's priced into Astrana Health, Inc.

The evidence tags valuation as expensive and shows a 73% premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative. Pricing is marked as justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to strong signs of overly fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth is tracking management’s 2026 guidance, which was reaffirmed, and recent earnings reports were positive. Free cash flow is progressing toward guidance, but the status is mixed, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic despite a low stated miss probability.

What Astrana Health, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on ASTH sustaining revenue growth, improving cash generation, and continuing progress in full-risk contracts. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength from healthcare peers would support sector momentum.