Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.75-0.94%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Surgery Partners, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	840.56M
EPS	—	0.233
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.35B–$3.45B	3.35B
EPS	—	0.405
EBITDA	At least $530Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.27B
EPS	—	0.431

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026	Surgery Partners aims for adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $530 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed the 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target of at least $530 million. Actual Adjusted EBITDA was $102.3 million in 2026-Q1 and $125.2 million in 2026-Q2, showing steady quarterly performance. The trajectory is delivering consistent progress toward the annual target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve cash from operations from recent low levels	The company focuses on improving cash from operations despite recent declines.	Broken	Cash from operations remains below $50 million over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $59.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Increase cash from operations above $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202659,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Surgery Partners, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $3.35 billion in FY26	Revenue: $848.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026848,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2818802c-ad19-47ba-b928-b6faf624a19d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion. Quarterly revenue increased from $810.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $848.9 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting steady growth. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue expansion aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.65 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$3.59B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.65	$3,588,052,490	11 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.67	$3,588,052,490	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-14	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.63	$3,586,243,163	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.54	$3,512,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.54	$3,511,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.54	$3,511,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.54	$3,511,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.54	$3,511,564,467	5 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.49	$3,349,790,667	5 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	9	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	9	3
2026-10-01	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve cash from operations from recent low levelsPublished status: Broken
Revenue between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion in 2026Revenue: $848.9M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Surgery Partners, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare growth and execution story, with a sector tailwind but elevated risk. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and earnings quality remains loss-making.

What's priced into Surgery Partners, Inc.

The valuation evidence suggests SGRY is expensive versus peers, with a 2.23-point premium, while the expectations gap is 0.28. The model has low confidence, and the recent valuation score fell from 59.3 to 49.0; the evidence does not show a clear case that expectations are undemanding.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results have been strong: revenue rose from $810.9 million in the first quarter to $848.9 million in the second, and quarterly Adjusted EBITDA was $102.3 million and $125.2 million. Management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue range and Adjusted EBITDA goal, and completed the Idaho Falls divestiture, but the annual EBITDA goal remains a mixed-status priority amid erratic recent earnings surprises.

What Surgery Partners, Inc. hinges on

The near-term test is whether management maintains its guidance and continues progress toward the 2026 goals; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on employment conditions and healthcare sector results, with continued strength from bellwethers such as HCA, THC, and EHC supporting the sector backdrop.