Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09

$14.12+1.15%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Turnaround

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

Surgery Partners aims for adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026. Revenue guidance is $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion for 2026. The company focuses on improving cash from operations despite recent declines. New management hires may help stabilize operations.

The bear case

The company is currently loss-making with declining cash flow from operations. Recent earnings misses and lowered guidance show operational challenges. Debt issuance and management turnover add risk to execution.

What's priced in

The stock price is about 23% below our valuation level and 23% below consensus price estimates. Analysts expect about 5% revenue growth, which aligns with company guidance. Our view is cautious given the operational risks and recent earnings misses.

What has to stay true

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of at least $530 million in 2026Intact
Marginprimary>= $530 million · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $530 million in FY26
Improve cash from operations from recent low levelsBroken
Cash FlowsupportingIncrease cash from operations above $50 million · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: Cash from operations remains below $50 million over next 4 quarters
Revenue between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion in 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimarybetween $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion · FY26 (guidance)
Revenue falls below $3.35 billion in FY26

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

SGRY's long-term thesis reflects a mixed outlook amid strong recent performance and elevated risks.

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround story in the healthcare sector. SGRY is currently navigating a challenging environment while aiming for improved financial metrics, but it faces risks that could impact its performance.

What's priced into Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)

The market currently reflects a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. Recent valuation has decreased, indicating that the market may have adjusted to the company's mixed performance and risks.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has reaffirmed revenue guidance, showing consistent growth. However, Adjusted EBITDA is slightly below prior year periods, indicating some challenges in meeting financial targets.

What Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet their financial targets and the performance of sector peers. Any cuts to guidance or worsening economic indicators could negatively impact sentiment.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

label change · signal_label
small change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings report showed a revenue beat, confirming stronger performance than expected. This growth was attributed to higher-acuity procedures, despite flat overall case volumes. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this outlook.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.