Ensign Group (ENSG)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$175.59-1.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ensign Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.57B
EPS	—	2.073
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$5.87B–$5.92B	5.9B
EPS	—	7.812
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.57B
EPS	—	8.586

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Stock repurchase authorization increases to $100 million	Management steadily increases net income, hitting nearly $100 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Stock repurchase authorization is reduced below $40 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-06-15. The Board approved increasing the stock repurchase authorization from $40 million to $100 million. This is a recent capital allocation priority with no prior quarterly statements in the supplied disclosures. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income grows to at least $99.67 million in Q1 2026	Management steadily increases net income, hitting nearly $100 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Net income falls below $80.28 million in Q1 2026	Net income: $99.738M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $99.67 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 202699,738,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b29790a2-183a-4e8b-8bbe-3df9f8ae8cdc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP net income increased from $80.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $99.7 million in 2026-Q2, an increase of 24.2%. Management's focus on revenue growth and operational improvements is delivering consistent net income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $124.85 million in Q1 2026	Profit margins improve with operating income rising to $124.85 million in Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $101.37 million in Q1 2026	Operating income: $122.504M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $124.85 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 2026122,504,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b29790a2-183a-4e8b-8bbe-3df9f8ae8cdc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $101.4 million in 2025-Q1 to $122.5 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting operational improvements and clinical excellence. Management's focus on operational efficiency and quality care is delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $5.83 billion in FY 2026	Ensign Group grows revenue about 14% a year, reaching $5.83 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $5.06 billion in FY 2026	Revenue: $1.44B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.83 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 27, 20261,440,481,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b29790a2-183a-4e8b-8bbe-3df9f8ae8cdc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Consolidated revenue grew from $1.17 billion in 2025-Q3 to $1.44 billion in 2026-Q2, a 22.7% increase. Annual revenue guidance was raised twice in 2026, from $5.77-$5.84 billion to $5.87-$5.92 billion. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth through organic improvements and disciplined acquisitions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$8.33 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$6.43B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.33	$6,432,314,430	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$8.33	$6,432,314,430	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$8.33	$6,432,314,430	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$8.33	$6,432,314,430	5 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-29	$8.40	$6,457,070,430	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$8.40	$6,457,070,430	5 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	$8.55	$6,505,096,550	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Stock repurchase authorization increases to $100 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Net income grows to at least $99.67 million in Q1 2026Net income: $99.738M
Operating income improves to at least $124.85 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $122.504M
Revenue reaches about $5.83 billion in FY 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-31.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ensign Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a healthcare operator with a growth-focused, multi-year view, supported by strong recent financial performance and management priorities that are on track. The thesis is intact, though earnings quality is neutral and the overall risk level is moderate.

What's priced into Ensign Group

Valuation is about 11% above peers, and the evidence describes expectations as generally aligned with fundamentals. The premium appears justified by the current setup, but the evidence does not suggest that the market is assuming flawless execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term, management’s focus on revenue growth, operating income, and net income is supported by recent results, and annual revenue guidance was raised twice in 2026. The main risk is a reversal of that guidance, especially given a history of a deep miss and recent peer misses; the estimated near-term miss risk is low.

What Ensign Group hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and avoiding a guidance cut that could damage credibility. A weakening jobs trend could raise recession concerns, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.