Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$39.57+1.31%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Sonida is growing with a $63.75M revenue target for 2026. It is integrating 69 new communities from the CHP merger. The company is working to reduce its operating losses from -$41.2M. A new COO was hired to improve operations.
Sonida is still losing money with negative cash flow. Revenue growth may slow below 62%. The company missed earnings recently and faces cost challenges.
The price is about 24% above our fair value near $33. Analysts expect 62% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is 22% below the Street median.
Breaks if: cash flow remains below -$35.9M over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: integration delays or failures reported during FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on recovering from recent earnings misses. The company has shown strong recent financial performance but remains volatile in management execution.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap suggesting that some recovery is already anticipated. However, SNDA trades at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that investors are factoring in potential upside from its sector's momentum.
Fundamentals may improve if management successfully integrates the CHP acquisition and continues to manage capital effectively. However, there is an elevated risk of another earnings miss in the near term, given the company's recent history.
The thesis hinges on key factors such as the performance of sector bellwethers, management's ability to execute on their priorities, and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth. Any guidance cuts or worsening economic indicators could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: operating income remains below -$41.2M over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: revenue falls below $60.5M in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, SNDA's performance will depend on its operational execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.