Sonida Senior Living, Inc. (SNDA)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$33.82-0.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sonida Senior Living, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	207.07M
EPS	—	-0.503
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	729.73M
EPS	—	-3.593
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	860.25M
EPS	—	-1.585

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improves from -$35.9M	A primary condition in Sonida Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is cash flow from operations improves from -$35.9M toward positive.	Improving	cash flow remains below -$35.9M over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $8.72M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash flow from operations improves from -$35.9M toward positive. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20268,720,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete integration of 69 CHP senior living communities	It is integrating 69 new communities from the CHP merger.	Intact	integration delays or failures reported during FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward break-even from -$41.2M	A primary condition in Sonida Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating income improves from -$41.2M toward zero.	Intact	operating income remains below -$41.2M over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-5.461M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income improves from -$41.2M toward zero. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026-5,461,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sonida's total revenue reaches about $63.75 million	A primary condition in Sonida Senior Living, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$63.75M.	Intact	revenue falls below $60.5M in FY26	Revenue: $207.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$63.75M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026207,648,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b626dc4b-7b74-4664-b8f4-2700521d8dc9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	2
2026-06-01	2	2
2026-07-01	3	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improves from -$35.9MCash from operations: $8.72M
Complete integration of 69 CHP senior living communitiesQualitative condition
Operating income improves toward break-even from -$41.2MOperating income: $-5.461M
Sonida's total revenue reaches about $63.75 millionRevenue: $207.648M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sonida Senior Living, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SNDA is an acquisition-led healthcare growth story with cyclical exposure, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact this month because recent financial performance remains strong relative to its industry, though earnings quality is still loss-making.

What's priced into Sonida Senior Living, Inc.

SNDA trades at a sizable premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium as justified by durable business advantages. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation signal is uncertain. No valuation fragility flags are active.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after a run of misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to the operating outlook. Over the multi-year view, CHP integration is progressing: resident revenue rose 36.7%, pro forma NOI grew 14%, and second-quarter same-store NOI rose 16.9% as occupancy reached 87.8%. Capital management is being watched, while the new COO’s impact on margins is not yet measurable.

What Sonida Senior Living, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on SNDA continuing to realize value from CHP while maintaining liquidity and improving operations under new leadership. Near term, weaker jobs data or a guidance cut could weigh on cyclical healthcare businesses; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.