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Smart Sand Inc (SND)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$5.02-5.64%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SND trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Market cap
- $228.68M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2016-09-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$11.84consensus
Range $11.41 – $12.30
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$13.18consensus
Range $13.18 – $13.18
vs price: -62% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $5.02 SND trades at 9× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.2x
peer 21.5x · own history —
Premium
0.4x peer
Growth the price needs
-58%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$11.84
range $11.42 – $12.57
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 58% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
23rd pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
39th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme shale/unconventional.headwind-20.5%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$241.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$539.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,236.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sales volume growth of 5% to 10% in 2026
Why it matters: Achieving this growth shows demand for products is strong. It supports overall company health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sales volume growth reported between 5% and 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sales volume growth reported below 5% year over year.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SND yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 3% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting SND and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If SND raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit SND and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If SND cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SLB, BKR, and HAL start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping SND and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-089d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Smart Sand, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan On June 2, 2026, the stockholders of Smart Sand, Inc. (the “Company”), upon recommendation of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), approved the Smart Sand, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2026 Plan”) at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”), which 2026 Plan r…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.