Reading SKYT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKYT free→Reading SKYT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SKYT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, SKYT is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. If SKYT cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 SKYT trades at 4× p/s, below its 12× p/s peer median. Our $176 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 78% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 62%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.10 → $-0.10 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 80.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$688.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,264.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if SkyWater's revenue growth is improving or declining. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SKYT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on January 25, 2026, SkyWater Technology, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with IonQ, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), Iris Merger Subsidiary 1 Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub 1 ”), and Iris Merger Subsidiary 2 LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub 2” a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SKYT SkyWater Technology, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
SkyWater aims to achieve record revenues of $442.1 million for fiscal 2025, demonstrating strong growth.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. SkyWater achieved record revenues of $442.1 million for fiscal 2025, demonstrating strong growth compared to fiscal 2024. This indicates a positive trajectory in revenue growth.
“SkyWater's record revenues of $442.1 million for fiscal 2025 demonstrated strong growth compared to fiscal 2024.”
SkyWater is focused on improving its gross profit margin to enhance financial performance.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased to $32.15 million in 2026-Q1 from $25.55 million in 2025-Q4, indicating progress in improving gross profit margin. The trajectory shows positive movement in financial performance.
SkyWater aims to enhance cash from operating activities to strengthen its financial position.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved to $27.9 million in 2026-Q1 from -$36.07 million in 2025-Q4, showing a significant positive shift in financial position. The trajectory indicates strong progress.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown for SkyWater and its peers. This could affect market sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below the median of 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above the median of 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 20, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the SkyWater Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) Board of Directors approved a retention program providing for cash retention awards to certain key employees. The cash retention awards to each of the Company’s named executive officers were as follows: Thomas Sonderman - $579,145; John Sakamoto - $347,97…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026 , SkyWater Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 28, 2025. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherw…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On January 25, 2026, SkyWater Technology, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “SkyWater”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with IonQ, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Parent” or “IonQ”), Iris Merger Subsidiary 1 Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of IonQ (“Merger Sub 1”), and Iris Merger Subsidiary 2 LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned su…
Other Events. On January 25, 2026, SkyWater Technology, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “SkyWater”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with IonQ, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Parent” or “IonQ”), Iris Merger Subsidiary 1 Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of IonQ (“Merger Sub 1”), and Iris Merger Subsidiary 2 LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Merger Sub 2” and, togethe…
“Gross profit increased to $32.15 million in 2026-Q1 from $25.55 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Gross profit was $25.55 million.”
“Cash from operating activities improved to $27.9 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Cash from operating activities was -$36.07 million.”