Reading SIF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIF free→Reading SIF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SIF free→AMEXIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, SIF is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.82. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 SIF trades at 18× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.85x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$284.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$611.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,790.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows demand trends. These trends affect how SIFCO looks in the future.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SIF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 8, 2026, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (the "Company" or "SIFCO") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second quarter and six months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this item and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be deemed filed by SIFCO for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SIF SIFCO Industries Inc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through operational improvements and market expansion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased to $26.44 million in 2026-Q2 from $23.97 million in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory in revenue growth. The company is delivering on its focus to increase revenue through operational improvements and market expansion.
“Revenue increased to $26.44 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Revenue was $23.97 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Revenue was $22.81 million in 2025-Q4.”
Enhance profitability by increasing net income through cost management and revenue growth.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income increased to $2.65 million in 2026-Q2 from $1.79 million in 2026-Q1, indicating improved profitability. The company is delivering on its priority to enhance profitability through cost management and revenue growth.
“Net income increased to $2.65 million in 2026-Q2.”
Focus on improving gross profit through operational efficiencies and cost control.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit increased to $5.66 million in 2026-Q2 from $5.19 million in 2026-Q1, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost control. The company is delivering on its focus to improve gross profit.
“Gross profit increased to $5.66 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Gross profit was $5.19 million in 2026-Q1.”
Why it matters: The FOMC makes decisions that change interest rates. This affects the economy and companies like SIFCO.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts rates or signals a dovish stance.
Why it matters: GDP growth and company profits show how healthy the economy is. This impacts SIFCO's performance.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Ms. Jennifer Wilson. As reported on Form 8-K filed by SIFCO Industries, Inc., an Ohio corporation (the “Company”) on December 19, 2025, Jennifer Wilson notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company of her desire to resign from her position as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of February 20, 2026 (th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (the "Company" or "SIFCO") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its first quarter and three months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this item and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be deemed filed by SIFCO for purposes of Section 18 of the Se…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Ms. Jennifer Wilson. On December 15, 2025, Jennifer Wilson notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of SIFCO Industries, Inc., an Ohio corporation (the “Company”), of her desire to resign from her position as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of February 20, 2026. Ms. Wilson’s decision to resign is not the res…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 22, 2025, SIFCO Industries, Inc. (the "Company" or "SIFCO") issued a press release announcing its financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this item and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be deemed filed by SIFCO for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
“Net income was $1.79 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Net income was -$0.43 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Gross profit was $2.19 million in 2025-Q4.”