Reading SAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAM free→Reading SAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAM free→NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - BrewersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and it is priced below typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If SAM cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $180.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $182 SAM trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $166 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $210–$315. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 13% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.05x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.94 → $4.96 (+0.4% / 30d). 3 raised, 7 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 7% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$155.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,806.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This buyback could support the stock price and show confidence in the company.
Confirms:The company starts the buyback program and makes purchases.
Disproves:The company delays or cancels the buyback program.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Control of Registrant. 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders The Company held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 27, 2026, at which quorums of 68.0% of Class A Stockholders and 100% of Class B Stockholders were present and acting throughout. The proposals submitted by the Board of Directors to the Stockholders for action and the results of the voting on each proposal are indicated below. Item 1 . The Class A Stockholders elected the following three (3) Class A Directors,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$210.00 – $315.00 (median $236.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAM Boston Beer Company | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | full | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company plans to repurchase up to $25 million of its Class A Common Stock between June 29, 2026, and September 25, 2026.
The company aims to improve its operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
The company aims to increase cash generated from operating activities, which has fluctuated.
Why it matters: A larger decline in depletions would signal ongoing weakness in sales trends. This could impact future revenue and margins.
Confirms:Q2 depletions decline year over year worse than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 depletions decline year over year better than 5%.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This leads to more money.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is better than the -$190.455 million from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 operating income is still going down or stays negative.
Why it matters: Better gross margin means improved cost management and pricing power. These are key for making money.
Confirms:Q2 gross margin improves year over year, exceeding 50%.
Disproves:Q2 gross margin declines year over year, falling below 48%.
Why it matters: Growth in the consumer staples sector could help Boston Beer Company.
Confirms one read:Consumer staples revenue growth picks back up above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Consumer staples revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: When the litigation is resolved, it could affect cash flow and financial health. This cost is important.
Confirms:A timeline for resolving the litigation shows it will happen in the next 6 months.
Disproves:No timeline is provided, or the resolution is delayed beyond 6 months.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better money management and helps growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities goes up year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could greatly affect financial results.
Confirms:The company gives a good update or settlement about the lawsuit.
Disproves:The company reports more legal costs or bad rulings in the lawsuit.
Other Events. As reported in the Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed by the Company on April 30, 2026, on April 6, 2026 a jury in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois (the “Court”) returned a verdict awarding damages against the Company in its supplier dispute with Ardagh Metal Packaging USA Corp. (“Ardagh”). As a result of the verdict, during the first quarter of 2026 the Company recorded a non-recurring pre-tax litigation expense of $175.5 million and relat…
Other Events. On May 15, 2026, the Company entered into a 10b5-1 plan to repurchase up to $25 million of the Company’s Class A Common Stock during the period commencing June 29, 2026 and ending September 25, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Date: May 19, 2026 By: /s/ Jim Koch Name: C. James Koch Ti…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, The Boston Beer Company, Inc. disclosed financial information for the first quarter of 2026 in an earnings release, a copy of which is set forth in the attached Exhibit 99. The information in this Form 8-K and the Exhibit 99 attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that secti…
Other Events. As previously disclosed, including most recently in the Form 10-K filed by the Company on February 24, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging USA Corp. (“Ardagh”) filed an action against the Company in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois (the “Court”) on December 31, 2022, alleging, among other claims, that the Company had failed or would fail to purchase contractual minimum volumes of certain aluminum beverage can containers from 2021 to 2025. On April…