Reading PG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PG free→Procter & Gamble (PG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$150.48+0.58%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Household & Personal Products
- Market cap
- $348.38B
- Employees
- 109,000
- IPO date
- 1890-08-22
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $150.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$121.78consensus
Range $105.10 – $127.96
vs price: +24% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$129.34consensus
Range $83.85 – $143.62
vs price: +16% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $150 PG trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $142–$177. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.7x
peer 17.5x · own history 24.5x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
24%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$121.78
range $103.81 – $127.50
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 24% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
74th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
26th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish19 analysts, 56% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.42 → $1.42 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 15 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.2% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$188.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,615.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q4 organic sales growth below 0%
Why it matters: Falling organic sales would show a big change in what consumers want and market trends.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q4 organic sales growth reported at 0% or lower compared to the prior year.
Disproves:Q4 organic sales growth was above 0%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1623h agoThe Financial Express
Demand concerns directly impact sales growth guidance.
ChallengesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UL, CL, and KVUE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting PG and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit PG and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If PG cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like UL, CL, and KVUE start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping PG and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-241mo agoItem 2.02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On April 24, 2026 , The Procter & Gamble Company (the "Company") issued a news release with respect to earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company is furnishing this 8-K pursuant to Item 2.02, "Results of Operations and Financial Condition."
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.5 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.