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Walmart (WMT)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$121.03+0.17%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from WMT and the performance of sector bellwethers like COST and TGT. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Market cap
- $963.25B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1970-10-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-20
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $121.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$73.60consensus
Range $49.73 – $102.72
vs price: +64% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$110.83consensus
Range $64.90 – $158.32
vs price: +9% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $121 the market pays 43× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 43× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $73 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $120–$155. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
42.5x
peer 17.5x · own history 42.5x
Premium
2.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
65%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$73.18
range $49.95 – $102.64
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
79th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
55th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish33 analysts, 89% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.75 → $0.74 (-0.5% / 30d). 10 raised, 11 cut, 33 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$86.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$194.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth guidance to be below 4%
Why it matters: A lower revenue growth forecast shows weaker demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Guidance for Q2 net sales growth below 4%.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth guidance meets or exceeds 4%.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoYahoo! Finance
Kroger's price cuts may impact Walmart's eCommerce sales growth.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like COST, TGT, and DG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting WMT and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WMT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WMT and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If WMT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-21), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like COST, TGT, and DG start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping WMT and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2127d agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), Walmart Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), is furnishing to the SEC a press release that the Company will issue on May 21, 2026 (the "Press Release") and a financial presentation that will be first posted by the Company on the Company’s website at http://stock.walmart.com on May 21, 2026 (the "Financial Presentation"). The Press Release and the Financial Presentation will disclose information regarding the Company's…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.