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Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$80.93-2.05%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, with low risk, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-alcoholic
- Market cap
- $355.47B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1919-09-05
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.93. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$56.54consensus
Range $50.69 – $64.62
vs price: +43% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$78.81consensus
Range $67.51 – $87.34
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $81 the market pays 26× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 25× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $56 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $84–$89. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.9x
peer 17.5x · own history 25.0x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
44%
our forecast 5%
Our fair value
$56.38
range $50.69 – $64.62
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 44% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
66th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
17th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral17 analysts, 76% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.93 (+0.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 13 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$73.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$157.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $787.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 22d
Watch for Q2 organic revenue growth below 4%
Why it matters: This would signal that the company's growth strategy is losing momentum. It could raise concerns about future performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth was below 4%.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth meets or exceeds 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-143d agoThe New York Times
World Cup brand deal issues could impact revenue growth.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like PEP, MNST, and KDP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting KO and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If KO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If KO beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a beat of +6% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If KO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like PEP, MNST, and KDP start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping KO and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of a press release of The Coca-Cola Company (“company”), dated April 28, 2026, reporting the Company’s financial results for the first quarter 2026. The information in this Item 2.02, including the Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securit…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.