NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Coca-Cola grows organic revenue about 4% to 5% yearly. Profit per share rises 8% to 9%. Free cash flow hits about $12.2 billion in 2026. The company keeps winning with strong brand and partnerships.
Tax case risks cash flow and financial health. Brand deal issues could hurt revenue growth. Executive departures may disrupt operations.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $63. Analysts expect only 1% revenue growth, below management's 4% to 5% target. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median, which is optimistic.
Breaks if: comparable EPS growth falls below 8% YoY in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $10 billion in FY26
Tax case causes cash flow reduction over 5% or significant financial distress
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some underlying fragility in execution quality.
The market appears to be pricing in a premium for Coca-Cola, reflecting expectations of consistent growth. However, the elevated valuation may not be justified given the fragility in execution and potential risks in the broader economic environment.
Coca-Cola is on track to meet its management priorities, including organic revenue growth and EPS growth. However, there is a low probability of missing these targets, though recent history shows vulnerability to misses.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of economic conditions such as job growth, and the potential reacceleration of inflation which could benefit the sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. The company aims to drive organic revenue growth of 4% to 5%. This growth aligns with recent strong financial performance and reinforces the reason to own the stock.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: organic revenue growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, Coca-Cola's performance will depend on its execution against targets and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
