Coca-Cola Company (The) (KO)

NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-15

$93.90+2.07%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Coca-Cola Company (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.53 → 3.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Comparable EPS growth of 8% to 9%	A primary condition in Coca-Cola Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is 8% to 9% YoY growth.	Intact	comparable EPS growth falls below 8% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $0.77 in 2025-Q1 to $1.03 in 2026-Q2, with comparable EPS growth guidance at 8% to 9% for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering on EPS growth targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Free cash flow generation of approximately $12.2 billion	Free cash flow hits about $12.2 billion in 2026.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $10 billion in FY26	Free cash flow: $5.104B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$12.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20265,104,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage and resolve $20 billion tax case without material cash flow impact	Free cash flow hits about $12.2 billion in 2026.	Intact	Tax case causes cash flow reduction over 5% or significant financial distress	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Organic revenue growth of at least 4% annually	A primary condition in Coca-Cola Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY.	Intact	organic revenue growth falls below 4% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Organic revenues grew from $11.1 billion in 2025-Q1 to $13.4 billion in 2026-Q2, reflecting consistent growth. Management's guidance for 2026 remains at approximately 4% to 5% organic revenue growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.53

$3.48 → $3.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$49.89B

$49.60B → $49.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.48	$49,602,485,320	23 / 17
2026-07-25	$3.48	$49,786,769,460	23 / 18
2026-07-26	$3.48	$49,786,769,460	23 / 18
2026-07-27	$3.48	$49,786,791,690	23 / 18
2026-07-28	$3.48	$49,853,860,950	14 / 14
2026-07-29	$3.48	$49,786,791,690	23 / 18
2026-07-30	$3.48	$49,786,791,690	23 / 18
2026-07-31	$3.53	$49,888,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$3.53	$49,888,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-02	$3.53	$49,815,910,960	24 / 18
2026-08-03	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$3.53	$49,815,910,960	24 / 18
2026-08-05	$3.53	$49,815,910,960	24 / 18
2026-08-06	$3.53	$49,815,910,960	24 / 18
2026-08-07	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-08	$3.53	$49,815,924,170	24 / 18
2026-08-09	$3.53	$49,815,924,170	24 / 18
2026-08-10	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-12	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.53	$49,896,477,816	14 / 14
2026-08-20	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-03	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-04	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-05	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-06	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-07	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-08	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-09	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-10	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-11	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-12	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-13	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-14	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-15	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-16	$3.53	$49,896,465,137	14 / 14
2026-09-17	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-18	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-19	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-20	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-21	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-22	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-23	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-24	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-25	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-26	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-27	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-28	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-29	$3.53	$49,890,607,242	14 / 14
2026-09-30	$3.53	$49,890,766,660	14 / 14
2026-10-01	$3.53	$49,890,761,397	14 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.53	$49,890,761,397	14 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.53	$49,890,761,397	14 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.53	$49,890,761,397	14 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.53	$49,890,761,397	14 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.53	$49,894,603,181	13 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.53	$49,894,603,181	14 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.53	$49,894,603,181	14 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.53	$49,894,603,181	14 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.53	$49,898,765,299	14 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.53	$49,898,765,299	14 / 14
2026-10-12	$3.53	$49,898,765,299	14 / 14
2026-10-13	$3.53	$49,888,712,667	14 / 14
2026-10-14	$3.53	$49,888,712,667	14 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.53	$49,888,712,667	14 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	19	5	1
2026-06-01	19	5	1
2026-07-01	19	5	1
2026-08-01	19	4	1
2026-09-01	19	4	1
2026-10-01	19	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Comparable EPS growth of 8% to 9%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow generation of approximately $12.2 billionFree cash flow: $5.104B
Manage and resolve $20 billion tax case without material cash flow impactQualitative condition
Organic revenue growth of at least 4% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-7.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Coca-Cola Company (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but there are underlying risks that could impact future results.

What's priced into Coca-Cola Company (The)

The market seems to reflect a neutral valuation, with a premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for potential risks and recent execution quality issues.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its goals of organic revenue growth and EPS growth. However, there is a watch on free cash flow generation, which could affect overall performance if not met.

What Coca-Cola Company (The) hinges on

Key factors include the potential for management to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of economic conditions like job growth, and inflation trends that could favor consumer staples. Any significant changes in these areas could swing the outlook.