Reading PEP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PEP free→
PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$146.12-0.09%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is low, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with PEP trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is based on being priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If PEP cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-alcoholic
- Market cap
- $197.21B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1965-06-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-09
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $146.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$123.73consensus
Range $116.71 – $147.12
vs price: +18% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$210.77consensus
Range $195.32 – $258.54
vs price: -31% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $146 PEP trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $123 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $143–$181. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.9x
peer 17.5x · own history 22.5x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
19%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$123.33
range $117.04 – $147.37
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 19% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
93rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
42nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral17 analysts, 33% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.23 → $2.23 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 9.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$87.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$195.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,712.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Q2 earnings date on July 9, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It will affect how investors feel.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows positive trends in revenue and EPS.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows negative trends in revenue and EPS.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PEP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KO, MNST, and KDP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting PEP and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PEP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-16), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for PEP and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If PEP cuts guidance on the next call (currently INITIATED as of 2026-04-16), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like KO, MNST, and KDP start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping PEP and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2226d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Effective May 22, 2026, PepsiCo, Inc. (“ PepsiCo ”) terminated the $5,000,000,000 364 day unsecured revolving credit agreement, dated as of May 23, 2025, among PepsiCo, as borrower, the lenders party thereto, and Citibank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “ 2025 364 Day Credit Agreement ”). There were no outstanding borrowings under the 2025 364 Day Credit Agreement at the time of its termination. On May 22, 2026, PepsiCo entered into a new $5,000,000,000 364 day unsecured rev…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.