Reading COKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COKE free→Reading COKE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COKE free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact growth. Compared with sector peers, COKE trades above typical levels, indicating it looks expensive on this basis; peer multiples imply a price about 42% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis), and the read is rich. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could signal a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $186.16. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for COKE right now, so treat our $131 fair value as low-confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 42% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$274.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,466.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak sales growth could signal a slowdown in demand or pricing power.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 9% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth reported above 9% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COKE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2018-Q3, 2019-Q1, 2019-Q2, 2019-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
PEP PepsiCo | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | low |
MNST Monster Beverage | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to manage capital expenditures with a target of $300 million for fiscal year 2026.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strong volume performance and pricing actions.
Enhance operating income through cost management and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Higher aluminum costs may hurt gross margins and profits.
Confirms:Aluminum costs rise a lot, hurting gross margins by over $35 million.
Disproves:Aluminum costs stay the same or drop, helping gross margins.
Why it matters: It is important to keep CAPEX steady. This helps with future growth and efficiency.
Confirms:CAPEX reported at or above $300 million for 2026.
Disproves:CAPEX reported below $300 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher capex could indicate aggressive growth plans or financial strain.
Confirms one read:Capital spending for 2026 is over $300 million.
Confirms the other:Capital spending for 2026 is at or below $300 million.
Why it matters: More revenue growth shows that people want Coca-Cola products.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows sales are recovering.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year, suggesting ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: A lower gross margin may mean higher input costs are hurting profits.
Confirms:Gross margin reported below 39.0% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin reported above 39.0% for Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a news release reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.