Reading CELH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CELH free→Reading CELH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CELH free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 310% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If CELH cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29, CELH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 72× p/e (4.2× the 17× p/e peer median, and 0.8× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~285% near-term growth vs our ~100% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $7.47 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $41–$64. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 285% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.43 → $0.43 (+0.1% / 30d). 2 raised, 14 cut, 18 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 72.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$271.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$559.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show problems in the energy drink market. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported below 130% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 130% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CELH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Celsius Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Celsius"), issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and that Celsius' management team will host a webcast that day at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results with the investment community. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $64.00 (median $47.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CELH Celsius Holdings | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
PEP PepsiCo | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | low |
MNST Monster Beverage | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing gross profit through margin improvements and cost control.
Why it matters: Better margins would show that Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy are working well together. This would help make more money.
Confirms:Gross margin reported above 50% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 50% in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Celsius Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Celsius"), issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and that Celsius' management team will host a webcast that day at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results with the investment community. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Directors On February 10, 2026, Mr. Israel Kontorvsky and Mr. Michael Del Pozzo resigned from the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Celsius Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “ Company ”), with immediate effect. Both Messrs. Kontorovsky and Del Pozzo had been appointed to the Board in accordance with the previously reported…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on April 1, 2025, Celsius Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company"), and its wholly owned subsidiary, Celsius, Inc., as borrowers, certain subsidiaries of the Company as guarantors, the lenders and issuing banks from time to time party thereto and UBS AG, Stamford Branch, as administrative agent and collateral agent (the “Agent”), entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), providing for a term loan f…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in