Celsius Holdings (CELH)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-10-23

$28.47+0.39%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Celsius Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.73 → 1.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	767.54M
EPS	—	0.311
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.16B
EPS	—	1.429
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.43B
EPS	—	1.695

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26	A primary condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=50%.	Broken	gross margin falls below 50% in FY26	Gross margin: 48.13% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=50%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202648.13253 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35bfe1a2-347b-4b1e-8470-6147f57cacd3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
No material adverse impact from Texas legal probe	A supporting condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is No significant legal penalties or operational restrictions.	Intact	Material legal penalties or operational restrictions announced	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive $139 million in 2026-Q1	Profit margins improve with gross profit rising to $378M and operating income turning positive at $139M.	Intact	operating income falls below zero in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $75.255M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=139 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202675,255,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35bfe1a2-347b-4b1e-8470-6147f57cacd3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $783 million in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Celsius Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=783 million USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $725 million in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $817.925M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=783 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026817,925,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35bfe1a2-347b-4b1e-8470-6147f57cacd3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue increased from $721.6M in 2025-Q4 to $817.9M in 2026-Q2, reflecting integration of Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy and market expansion. Portfolio share reached 20.9% in Q1 2026. Management is delivering on integration milestones and revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.70

$1.98 → $1.70 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.43B

$3.61B → $3.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.98	$3,614,932,250	21 / 23
2026-07-25	$1.98	$3,614,932,250	21 / 23
2026-07-26	$1.98	$3,614,932,250	21 / 23
2026-07-27	$1.98	$3,605,894,443	15 / 18
2026-07-28	$1.98	$3,614,932,250	21 / 23
2026-07-29	$1.98	$3,614,932,250	21 / 23
2026-07-30	$1.97	$3,601,180,158	15 / 18
2026-07-31	$1.98	$3,610,649,580	21 / 23
2026-08-01	$1.98	$3,610,649,580	21 / 23
2026-08-02	$1.97	$3,607,972,710	21 / 23
2026-08-03	$1.97	$3,598,227,777	15 / 18
2026-08-04	$1.97	$3,607,972,710	21 / 23
2026-08-05	$1.97	$3,598,227,777	15 / 18
2026-08-06	$1.97	$3,598,227,777	15 / 18
2026-08-07	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-08	$1.85	$3,533,151,070	21 / 22
2026-08-09	$1.85	$3,533,151,070	21 / 22
2026-08-10	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-11	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-12	$1.74	$3,451,184,820	21 / 23
2026-08-13	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-14	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-15	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-16	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-17	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-18	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-19	$1.97	$3,598,229,777	15 / 18
2026-08-20	$1.74	$3,427,108,824	15 / 18
2026-08-21	$1.74	$3,427,108,824	15 / 18
2026-08-22	$1.74	$3,427,108,824	15 / 18
2026-08-23	$1.74	$3,427,108,824	15 / 18
2026-08-24	$1.74	$3,427,108,824	15 / 18
2026-08-25	$1.74	$3,431,113,039	16 / 19
2026-08-26	$1.74	$3,431,113,039	16 / 19
2026-08-27	$1.74	$3,431,113,039	16 / 19
2026-08-28	$1.74	$3,431,113,039	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-08-31	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-01	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-02	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-03	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-04	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-05	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-06	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-07	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-08	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-09	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-10	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-11	$1.75	$3,433,514,224	16 / 19
2026-09-12	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-13	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-14	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-15	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-16	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-17	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-18	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-19	$1.75	$3,433,468,391	16 / 19
2026-09-20	$1.73	$3,434,643,582	16 / 19
2026-09-21	$1.73	$3,434,643,582	16 / 19
2026-09-22	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-23	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-24	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-25	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-26	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-27	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-01	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-02	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-03	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-04	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-05	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-06	$1.73	$3,434,645,166	16 / 19
2026-10-07	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-08	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-09	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-10	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-12	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-13	$1.72	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-14	$1.70	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-15	$1.70	$3,434,147,374	16 / 19
2026-10-16	$1.70	$3,436,104,272	16 / 19
2026-10-17	$1.70	$3,436,104,272	16 / 19
2026-10-18	$1.70	$3,436,104,272	16 / 19
2026-10-19	$1.70	$3,436,104,272	16 / 19
2026-10-20	$1.70	$3,436,104,272	16 / 19
2026-10-21	$1.70	$3,435,745,939	16 / 19
2026-10-22	$1.70	$3,434,370,939	16 / 19
2026-10-23	$1.70	$3,434,369,355	16 / 19
2026-10-24	$1.70	$3,434,369,355	16 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	4
2026-06-01	20	4
2026-07-01	20	3
2026-08-01	20	7
2026-09-01	18	7
2026-10-01	18	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 15 · prior Aug 7

$44.00 → $38.00-13.6%

JefferiesOct 6

$42.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$24.20$48.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin stays at or above 50% in FY26Published status: Broken
No material adverse impact from Texas legal probeQualitative condition
Operating income improves to positive $139 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $75.255M
Revenue reaches at least $783 million in 2026-Q1Revenue: $817.925M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Celsius Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented consumer staples business with a multi-year thesis tied to integrating Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy and expanding its markets. The thesis state is watch, with the signal recently shifting from cautious to mixed after an earnings miss and performance below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Celsius Holdings

CELH is expensive versus peers, with a 2.7 premium measure, and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels the pricing as justified but gives that view low confidence, so the market’s assumptions are not clearly supported by a strong execution record.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue has grown as integration and market expansion progressed, but gross margin improved only slightly and remains below management’s low-50s target for 2026. A recent earnings miss, a COO transition, and elevated risk temper the picture; evidence on the chance of another miss is limited.

What Celsius Holdings hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether integration and market expansion sustain revenue growth while margins improve as management expects. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from sector leaders such as KO, PEP, and MNST would support the sector backdrop.