Reading COCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COCO free→Reading COCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COCO free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 222% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers like KO, PEP, and MNST perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $82.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $83, COCO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 58× p/e (3.4× the 17× p/e peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~242% near-term growth vs our ~22% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $57–$78. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 242% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.86x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.54 → $0.54 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$419.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,323.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Lower growth in Q2 may show less demand for coconut water. This could affect future plans.
Confirms:Q2 net sales growth reported below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net sales growth remains above 30% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for COCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$57.00 – $78.00 (median $70.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-04-30
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
COCO The Vita Coco Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | low |
PEP PepsiCo | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | low |
MNST Monster Beverage | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Aim to enhance gross profit margins through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and performance. This can impact stock value.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a new executive or board member with a strong track record.
Confirms the other:No new announcements about executives. No one is leaving.
Why it matters: Higher SG&A may hurt profits. It could also show wasteful spending.
Confirms:SG&A expenses increase more than 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:SG&A expenses increase less than 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is working better. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Operating income grew by more than 20% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income grew by less than 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Confirms:Gross margin reported below 38% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin remains at or above 38% in Q2.
Why it matters: Positive trends in Private Label can boost overall revenue and market share.
Confirms:Private Label shipment trends show improvement in Q2.
Disproves:Private Label shipment trends worsen or remain flat in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving margins show the company is managing costs well. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 40%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported below 40%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 8, 2026, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K announcing the appointment of Shelley Broader to the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) on January 7, 2026. At the time of filing of that report, the Board had not determined the committee assignments for Ms. Broader. On April 17, 2026, the Bo…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. John Leahy, a member of the Board of Directors of The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (the “Company”) has decided to retire from the Company's Board of Directors and will not stand for reelection at the Company's 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 3, 2026. Mr. Leahy has served on the Board since 2019 and is a member of both the Audit Committee and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18th, 2026, The Vita Coco Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is bein…