Walmart (WMT)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-15

$118.81+0.80%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Walmart’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.23 → 3.22 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 26 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
eCommerce sales growth of at least 5% YoY	Walmart grows eCommerce sales 26% in 2026-Q2.	Intact	eCommerce sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Global eCommerce sales grew consistently, with 23% growth in 2026-Q3 and 26% in 2026-Q2 and Q1, led by store-fulfilled pickup & delivery and marketplace. The trajectory is delivering sustained growth aligned with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income growth of at least 5% YoY	Operating income rose 5% in 2026-Q2.	Under Pressure	Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year	Operating income growth: 28.78% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 28, 202628.781224 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef569839-4aef-46f0-bfac-526709672756. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 7-10% in Q3 FY2026	A primary condition in Walmart's published investment case. The stated target is 7-10%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 6% next quarter	Operating margin: 4.99% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 7-10%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 28, 20264.992631 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef569839-4aef-46f0-bfac-526709672756. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue of at least $175.8 billion in Q3 FY2026	A primary condition in Walmart's published investment case. The stated target is >=$175.8 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $170 billion next quarter	Revenue: $187.937B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$175.8 billion. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 28, 2026187,937,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef569839-4aef-46f0-bfac-526709672756. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Share repurchases of at least $8 billion YTD	It has a $30 billion share buyback program.	Under Pressure	Share repurchases fall below $5 billion YTD next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Share repurchases have been ongoing with 42.3 million shares repurchased year-to-date for $5.1 billion as of 2026-Q3, consistent with the $30 billion authorization. The trajectory shows active execution of the repurchase program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.22

$3.28 → $3.22 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$785.64B

$787.38B → $785.64B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.28	$787,378,483,738	25 / 27
2026-07-25	$3.28	$787,378,483,738	25 / 27
2026-07-26	$3.28	$787,378,483,738	25 / 27
2026-07-27	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-07-28	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-07-29	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-07-30	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-07-31	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-08-01	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-08-02	$3.28	$787,386,773,069	25 / 27
2026-08-03	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-04	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-05	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-06	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-08	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-09	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-10	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-12	$3.28	$787,093,443,660	39 / 35
2026-08-13	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-14	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-15	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-16	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-17	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-18	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-19	$3.27	$787,197,066,498	25 / 27
2026-08-20	$3.27	$786,649,144,367	25 / 27
2026-08-21	$3.25	$787,369,684,361	25 / 27
2026-08-22	$3.23	$785,902,021,898	25 / 27
2026-08-23	$3.23	$785,902,021,898	26 / 28
2026-08-24	$3.23	$785,902,021,898	26 / 28
2026-08-25	$3.23	$785,902,021,898	26 / 28
2026-08-26	$3.23	$785,651,571,351	26 / 28
2026-08-27	$3.23	$785,651,571,351	26 / 28
2026-08-28	$3.23	$785,651,571,351	26 / 28
2026-08-29	$3.23	$785,359,521,351	26 / 28
2026-08-30	$3.23	$785,845,816,770	26 / 28
2026-08-31	$3.23	$785,845,816,770	26 / 28
2026-09-01	$3.23	$785,954,965,223	26 / 28
2026-09-02	$3.23	$785,954,044,171	26 / 28
2026-09-03	$3.23	$785,954,044,171	26 / 28
2026-09-04	$3.23	$785,954,044,171	26 / 28
2026-09-05	$3.23	$785,954,056,547	26 / 28
2026-09-06	$3.23	$785,954,056,547	26 / 28
2026-09-07	$3.23	$785,954,056,547	26 / 28
2026-09-08	$3.23	$785,954,056,547	26 / 28
2026-09-09	$3.23	$785,954,056,547	26 / 28
2026-09-10	$3.23	$785,954,067,073	26 / 28
2026-09-11	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-12	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-13	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-14	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-15	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-16	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-17	$3.23	$785,954,093,389	26 / 28
2026-09-18	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-19	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-20	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-21	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-22	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-23	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-24	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-25	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-26	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-27	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-28	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-29	$3.23	$785,894,777,599	26 / 28
2026-09-30	$3.23	$786,096,540,757	26 / 28
2026-10-01	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 27
2026-10-02	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 28
2026-10-03	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 27
2026-10-04	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 27
2026-10-05	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 27
2026-10-06	$3.22	$785,821,578,174	26 / 27
2026-10-07	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-08	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-09	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-10	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-11	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-12	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-13	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-14	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27
2026-10-15	$3.22	$785,642,542,226	26 / 27

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	39	4	1
2026-06-01	39	5	1
2026-07-01	37	5	1
2026-08-01	38	6	2
2026-09-01	37	5	1
2026-10-01	38	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 38 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 15 · prior Aug 21

$113.00 → $136.00+20.4%

$0$74.80$149.60

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

eCommerce sales growth of at least 5% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating income growth of at least 5% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 7-10% in Q3 FY2026Published status: Broken
Share repurchases of at least $8 billion YTDPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 19, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Walmart outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Walmart

The market currently reflects an expensive valuation, with a notable premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap that suggests the market may be pricing in overly optimistic future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, particularly in global eCommerce and advertising growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, as recent earnings surprises have been trending down.

What Walmart hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth priorities. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and job market stability will significantly impact Walmart's performance.