NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin near 7-10% in Q3 FY2026: Q2 FY27 operating margin 5.0% vs 7-10% target; Q3 FY27 guidance 3.0% vs <6% trip.
Walmart grows eCommerce sales 26% in 2026-Q2. Operating income rose 5% in 2026-Q2. It has a $30 billion share buyback program. Price cuts and store remodels boost online and store sales.
Rising competition forces Walmart to cut prices, hurting profit margins. Store closures in some states show challenges. Guidance cuts signal slower profit growth ahead.
The price is about 28% above our fair value near $87. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth, which is priced in. Our fair value is well below the Street median near $140.
Breaks if: eCommerce sales growth falls below 5% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 6% next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder, focusing on steady growth in eCommerce and advertising. The current thesis is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's clear priorities.
The market appears to price Walmart at a premium compared to peers, reflecting expectations for continued growth. However, this premium may be unjustified given the company's recent execution quality and the overall market environment.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management effectively driving eCommerce sales and operating income growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially if broader economic conditions worsen.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate potential economic headwinds. Key factors include inflation trends and the overall job market, which could impact consumer spending.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a better outlook. Walmart's eCommerce sales growth is also driving positive expectations. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $170 billion next quarter
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $5 billion YTD next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, Walmart's performance will depend on its execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
